Monsoon in India likely to be 'below normal' this year, says Skymet

Private weather forecaster Skynet, on Wednesday, said that 2019 monsoon in India is likely to be “below normal" at 93 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) owing to developing El Nino in the Pacific Ocean.

El Nino is the part of a routine climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean rises above-normal levels for an extended period of time. This possesses higher risks for the eastern parts and a major portion of the central part of India. 

The average or normal rainfall in the country this year can be defined between 96 and 104 percent against a 50-year average for the entire four-month monsoon season, which is 887 mm.

Skymet said that deficit rains are likely to spill during July with the monsoon having ‘a very sluggish start’.

Furthermore, Managing Director of Skymet, Jatin Singh told the reporters that the second half of the monsoon season is predicted to be better with August and September expecting to see normal rainfalls.

“The Pacific Ocean has become strongly warmer than average. The model projections call for 80 percent chance of El Nino (weather-producing phenomena) during March-May, dropping to 60 percent from June to August. This means, it is going to be a devolving El Nino year, though retaining threshold values all through the season. Thus, Monsoon 2019 is likely to be below normal," he said.

Mahesh Palwat, Vice President (Meteorology and Climate Change) of Skymet said once the El Nino tamps down, neutral conditions will eventually set out which will allow some improvement in the rainfall.

"The saviour factor could be IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) which is likely to be in the neutral or positive phase during the Monsoon. Thus, it may be able to absorb some of the El Nino blues and possibly would support rainfall during the second half of Monsoon," he said.

Karnataka, some parts of Maharashtra, southwest Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand along with the northeastern states are among the areas that will be affected due to deficient rains. 

President of Skymet, G. P. Sharma, on the other hand, said that Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to receive more rainfall. The onset of monsoon cannot be predicted at this moment and it has no relation with the overall rainfall the country receives, he said.

The rainfall in June will be 77 percent (126 mm) of the LPA while it will be 91 percent (263 mm) in July, 102 percent (266 mm) in August and 99 percent (171 mm) in September.

“Due to pre-monsoon activities, the temperature in the national capital will be under control this summer”, added Palwat.

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(With agency inputs)