Congress 'confident' of forming govt in Manipur as MLAs pull out from BJP-led coalition

With the N Biren Singh-led BJP government in Manipur at the verge of falling after three of its MLAs resigned and 6 other coalition MLAs including the Deputy CM withdrew support, Congress has declared that former Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh will be the new leader. Taking to Twitter, Congress spokesperson Ningombam Bupenda Meitei said that there will be 'new sunrise for Manipur' and he is 'confident' that three-times CM Singh will become the new Chief Minister. 

Lashing out at the BJP, he said that the fallout of the BJP government marks the downfall of the saffron party and declared it to be 'dawn' for the next General elections that will be held in 2024. After various leaders jumped ships, Congress spokesperson said that his party would lead the coalition government and would be 'people's true government'.

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MLAs who resigned from N Biren Singh government

In what is being termed as 'reverse Operation Kamala', BJP MLAs S Subhashchandra Singh, TT Haokip and Samuel Jendai, TMC MLA T Robindro Singh, National People's Party (NPP) MLAs Y Joykumar Singh (Deputy CM), N. Kayisii, L Jayanta Kumar Singh and Letpao Haokip and Independent MLA Ashab Uddin resigned from the coalition government and have extended their support to the Congress party. The three BJP MLAs officially joined Congress.

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The numbers game

In the 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress party emerged as the single largest party with 28 MLAs while BJP managed to win from 21 constituencies. 4 candidates of the NPP and Naga People's Front (NPF) respectively emerged victorious in the election. On the other hand, the LJP, TMC, and an Independent candidate won one seat each. As BJP secured the support of all non-Congress MLAs and one Congress MLA Thounaojam Shyamkumar, Governor Najma Heptulla invited the former to form the government. 

Subsequently, 7 more Congress MLAs- Sanasam Bira Singh, Ginsuanhau, Oinam Lukhoi Singh, Ngamthang Haokip, Yengkhom Surchandra Singh, Kshetrimayum Bira Singh, and Paonam Brojen Singh joined the BJP. This propelled the BJP-led ruling coalition's strength to 40. Meanwhile, Congress' disqualification petitions against 8 of its former legislators remained pending with the Assembly Speaker.

However, the situation changed dramatically after the Supreme Court's verdict in the case of T Shyamkumar. Subsequently, on March 28, 2020, the Assembly Speaker disqualified him as an MLA. On June 8, the Manipur High Court restrained 7 Congress MLAs who defected to the BJP namely, Sanasam Bira Singh, Ginsuanhau, Oinam Lukhoi Singh, Ngamthang Haokip, Yengkhom Surchandra Singh, Kshetrimayum Bira Singh, and Paonam Brojen Singh from entering the state Assembly unless their disqualification petitions are disposed of by the Speaker.

Thus, in the eventuality of a floor test taking place, 11 MLAs (7 MLAs have been restrained by the HC, 3 MLAs have resigned and Shyamkumar's seat remains vacant) will not be able to participate in the voting process. In such a scenario, the BJP-led coalition can secure only 22 votes (excluding the Speaker) as compared to the Congress alliance's 26 votes in a 49-member house. This indicates that the BJP government in Manipur faces a tough test of survival. 

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