National Approval Ratings: How Mayawati's BSP which won zero Lok Sabha seats in 2014, could be the difference between 31 and 70 seats for BJP in Uttar Pradesh 2019

The Republic TV-CVoter National Approval Ratings have thrown up a stunning projection for the all-important state of Uttar Pradesh, where after a pair of sensational wins, in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and 2017 Assembly elections, the BJP appears to be running out of steam. All of it is highly conditional, however, incumbent upon the alliance dynamics of the other parties in the state.

As per the latest National Approval Ratings, the projection for the NDA would be a worry for PM Modi, Amit Shah and UP CM Yogi Adityanath, with the ruling coalition dropping from 73 seats in 2014 to just 31 Lok Sabha seats. The Rahul Gandhi-led UPA, which won just 2 seats in 2014, would be in line to increase its seat share to 5, while the traditional Uttar Pradesh regional powers (and former rivals), Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, are projected to be the biggest gainers, increasing their combined seat share from just 5 in 2014 (of which BSP won none) to 44.

Conditions apply, however, as the rating also gives the best-case scenario for the BJP and the Congress, which in the case of Uttar Pradesh, rests heavily on the Bahujan Samaj Party (which won zero seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls).

Mayawati has long been held to be a leader whose votes are 'transferrable' -- something that has been apparent in this year's by-polls where Uttar Pradesh CM and Deputy CM, Yogi Adityanath and Keshav Prasad Maurya respectively, watched as the Lok Sabha seats they had held before taking up their current positions were won by a the BSP-backed Samajwadi Party.

In the context of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the best case scenario for the BJP is that if Mayawati decides to contest elections alone, and not in alliance with her historic rival Samajwadi Party, the BJP would be projected to win 70 seats -- just 3 shy of its incredible 2014 performance.

On the other hand, if BSP and SP remain in alliance, and their Mahagathbandhan integrates with the Congress, the resulting UPA could win 56 seats. 

The latest scenario of the 'what ifs': While Akhilesh appears to be leaning towards the anti-Modi alliance that Chandrababu Naidu is forming, Mayawati has been les inclined. Also, she recently held an elaborate news briefing where she effectively severed ties with Rahul Gandhi -- which indicates that the BJP could come up trumps in India's most populous state again.