AAP’s Bastion at Stake: Can BJP Win Delhi? A SWOT Analysis

Delhi Assembly Election 2025: Following the announcement of the Delhi election dates, AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal stated that the upcoming Delhi Assembly polls will be a battle between the "politics of work and the politics of abuse." He confidently asserted that his party will form the government in the national capital. The Assembly elections will be held on February 5, with vote counting scheduled for February 8. The last date to file nominations is January 17, and nomination scrutiny will be completed by January 18. 

"This election will be between the politics of work and the politics of abuse. The people of Delhi will have faith in our politics of work. We will definitely win," Kejriwal said on X.  While Kejriwal and AAP leaders have been accusing the BJP of hurling abuses and trying to win the elections without having any chief ministerial candidate and issues, the AAP faces anti-incumbency, corruption allegations and an aggressive BJP in its bid to assume power for a third successive term.

The BJP, on the other hand, is making all-out attempts to come back to power in Delhi after over 25 years focussing on its slogan ‘Parivartan’ (change) and a targeted campaign against the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP over corruption allegations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi at 'Parivartan Rally' in Rohini last week made the party's intentions clear giving the call "Aapda (AAP) nahi sahenge, badal kar rahenge" (won't tolerate the disaster (AAP), will bring change").

SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threat) analysis of the BJP 

Strength

• Strong organisational presence up to booth level in all 70 assembly segments. The party held thousands of small reach-out meetings with targeted groups and communities paying focus on slums and unauthorised colonies months ahead of polls.
• A sustained campaign for change in public perception by highlighting corruption issues like "Sheesh Mahal" and liquor scam" that forced Arvind Kejriwal to step down as Delhi chief minister. Effectively raising civic issues like water scarcity, supply of polluted water, air pollution, waterlogging during rains, damaged roads, poor public bus transport.
• A general anti-incumbency against the AAP ruling in Delhi since 2015, especially against its MLAs. The BJP sought to take advantage of this weak point of the AAP issuing 'charge sheets' that listed failures of its MLAs in various constituencies.
• The BJP managed to retain all the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi for the third time in a row, in the parliamentary polls held last May. The BJP candidates also got more votes than those of AAP in 52 out of 70 assembly segments divided among seven Lok Sabha seats.

Weakness

• The BJP has been unable to project a local leader to challenge Kejriwal as chief ministerial candidate. The party has announced only 29 candidates so far and 41 others are yet to be declared although the polls will be held on February 5.
• The BJP has so far failed to come up with announcements to tackle AAP's promises like honorarium to women and priests. Prime Minister Modi has, however, assured that public welfare schemes of the current government will continue.
• The BJP has a poor record of victory in 12 reserved and 8 minority-dominated seats. The party failed to win even one of these seats in 2015 and 2020 assembly polls.

Opportunities

• Party leaders believe the BJP is in the best shape to end its dry run of over 25 years in Delhi because of a dent in Kejriwal's image due to corruption charges and problems faced by people under AAP rule.
• The BJP is in a position to defeat the AAP in Delhi ending its over-a-decade-long political dominance and diminishing Kejriwal who has emerged as a challenge to the party at the national level.
• The BJP may deepen its political roots in Delhi if it comes to power, backed by its government at the Centre.

Threat

• The BJP has an uphill task against the AAP which has a strong support base in the slums, unauthorised colonies, minority-dominated areas, and lower middle-class localities.
• The BJP has so far fielded 8 outsiders who switched to the party from AAP and Congress and some more could get tickets as 41 candidates are yet to be announced. Some party leaders claim dissent among local BJP leaders and workers in such constituencies.

A SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis of AAP as it heads to the polls 

Strengths

• AAP's schemes and programmes like revamped government schools, mohalla clinics, and free electricity remain its USP as well as women's free bus rides and senior citizen pilgrimage grants.
• Announcement of Rs 2,100 monthly honorarium for women, free healthcare for the elderly, and Rs 10 lakh insurance for auto drivers will add to its welfare-driven campaign.
• Campaigns like 'Revdi Par Charcha' ensure these benefits remain in public focus, showcasing AAP's consistent voter outreach.

Weaknesses

• Anti-incumbency looms large, with AAP completing more than a decade in power. Many voters might feel the need for change, which could affect the party's chances.
• Corruption allegations and arrests of key leaders, including Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia, have tarnished the party's clean image. Leadership transitions and internal rifts, including the departure of key figures like Kailash Gahlot, signal instability that could weaken its campaign.
• The 'Sheesh Mahal' controversy has dented Kejriwal's image, with the BJP using it to fuel its campaign against AAP.

Opportunities

• The elections give AAP a chance to rebuild its connection with voters. Highlighting its achievements in governance and introducing fresh faces by replacing 20 sitting MLAs show its willingness to adapt.
• Focusing on its local governance model and distancing itself from unsuccessful national-level alliances could help the party regain voter trust and reaffirm itself as a political force of its own in the national capital.  *Ability to address internal weaknesses and counter external threats will determine its future in Delhi politics as well as in national politics.
• The elections will be sort of a referendum on the party's governance model and its promises of providing an alternative approach centred on free welfare schemes to the common man.

Threats

• The BJP remains AAP's biggest threat with its strong campaign machinery, star campaigners like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and slogans like 'Aapda(AAP) Nahi Sahenge Badal Kar Rahenge' (won't tolerate the disaster (AAP), will bring change").
• Ongoing corruption investigations and frequent clashes with the LG's office, including disputes over policy decisions like reinstating former bus marshals, could further damage AAP's credibility and governance narrative.