India's GDP nearing to $20 trillion, per capita income at $10k by 2047, says Bibek Debroy

India’s GDP will be close to USD 20 trillion by 2047 and per capita income may reach USD 10,000 (at current value of USD), Bibek Debroy, chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, said on Wednesday.

Virtually addressing the inaugural session at the 57th Annual Conference of the Indian Econometric Society (TIES) held at the University of Hyderabad (UoH) here, he said though the COVID-19 pandemic may have passed, still there is a lot of uncertainty around the world on what is happening in China, about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, growth prospects in Europe and the USA.

“In 2047, India will have a per capita income of the value of today’s dollars of 10,000 US Dollars. The average size of the GDP will be approaching close to 20 trillion US Dollars too. India, therefore, will be a transformed society,” a press release from the varsity quoting Debroy said.

Remarking that basic necessities have been provided to the people and more so in the rural areas by the government, he said the economic indicators after the COVID have improved in India. Everyone is now looking to see the rate of growth in 2023-24 and the growth of economy by 2047.

According to him, India may witness volatilities in forex markets and capital markets and exchange rates due to some of the uncertainties around the world such as Russia- Ukraine conflict, growth prospects in Europe and the USA.

“Since India is not insulated, we will also face the volatility, forex markets and capital markets and exchange rates will face volatility. Inflation rates will also be impacted to some uncertainty,” he said.

Debroy opined that India needs need a simplified GST and direct tax as these are the areas on which everybody should think and the research that helps in making policy decisions much informed.

In order to increase India's growth rate from 7 per cent to eight per cent, lot more research needs to be done at the level of the States as different States are at different levels of development and hence the sources of growth will also be different.

“But the fact of the matter is that to raise the growth trajectory, we need to make land markets more efficient. Agriculture will also vastly improve when we make land markets more efficient. Similarly, we need to make the labour markets and capital markets also more efficient”, he added.