Vidarbha Holds the Key to the Mantralaya

In the 2024 electoral landslide of the Mahayuti alliance, if there is one region that holds particular significance for the victory of the BJP in particular, then that region has to be Vidarbha. The stronghold of Maharashtrian politics which has been part of political discourse in the state often in tussle with its much well known Kokan and MMR counterparts, holds the second highest number of seats for a regional segment in Maharashtra, i.e 60. In terms of outright political power and influence through pure volume in the Maharashtra Legislative assembly, Vidarbha is only second to Western Maharashtra which has 66 seats in the mix of the 288 strong Maharashtra Vidhan Bhavan.

It was this gateway of Vidarbha, one that is not only known to be a stronghold of the RSS, but also a battlefield which has consistently seen the fight between the two national parties in the state of Maharashtra that failed to help BJP tighten its grip onto power despite its 2019 electoral victory. The region sends some of the top most leaders of the state and the nation to its legislative houses namely Devendra Fadnavis from Nagpur south-west constituency to Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha and Nitin Gadkari to the Lok sabha from the Nagpur seat. However it was the surprising downturn in votes in 2019 in the RSS’s backyard that led to the eventual loss of leverage against the Shiv Sena in the post poll jousting for the CM’s chair.

In 2014, when the BJP recorded its best ever tally in Maharashtra, emerging as the single largest party in Maharashtra with a vote share of 28.1% and an impressive tally of 122 seats, Vidarbha was the biggest contributor of BJP’s 2014 Modi wave exploits which helped it win 44 of the 62 seats in Maharashtra. This helped BJP consolidate power and form the government in the state with a post poll alliance with the Shiv Sena which had won 63 seats in the assembly polls with the second highest vote share of 19.5%.

However things took a drastic turn in 2019, when the BJP was reduced to just 29 seats in Vidarbha, which was 15 seats down from its previous 2014 tally. This despite contesting the elections this time in a pre-poll arrangement with the Shiv Sena, coming on the back of a successful 2019 Lok Sabha electoral victory, in which the NDA had sweeped 41 out of the 48 Lok Sabha constituencies. The 2019 vote share of BJP had in fact marginally gone up from 27.6% in 2014, to 27.8% in 2019. While BJP and Sena both retained their 23 and 18 Lok Sabha seats respectively in 2019, it was the state assembly elections that came as a massive jolt to BJP’s expectations. Many believe that the losing of grip over 15 states, especially in what is considered a bastion of the BJP-RSS combine became a huge factor in the eventual loss of leverage against the then united Shiv Sena to keep them within the alliance fold without paying heed to their demands of a Chief Ministerial berth.

While the 2014 vote share of the BJP in Maharashtra was around 28.1% which was 0.5% up from its Lok Sabha vote share that year. In 2019, BJP’s overall vote share in Maharashtra was 26.1%, which was not only down by 2% as compared to 2014 state assembly elections, but also by 1.7% down from its vote share in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This margin of 2% slump in vote share resulted in massive losses in Vidarbha which as mentioned earlier raked up to a loss of 15 seats for the BJP.

This is why it was clear from the get go that recovery of damage in Vidarbha was an imperative when it came to the BJP’s comeback in the state of Maharashtra in the 2024 electoral battle. The 2024 Lok Sabha however proved to be a major upset for the BJP in Maharashtra with the BJP’s vote share further plummeting by 1.4% as compared to the previous Lok Sabha cycle, the BJP, this time in a new pre poll formation called the Mahayuti, an alliance of the now split Shiv Sena lead by Eknath Shinde and NCP of Ajit Pawar. BJP only managed 9 seats in Maharashtra by itself in 2024, resulting in a serious shortfall of the BJP’s aspiration to cross the magic number of 272 by itself in Lok Sabha. The Mahayuti had only won 3 out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in Vidarbha in 2024.

Which is why right ahead of the polls, one of BJP’s trusted strategist and senior leader from Madhya Pradesh, Kailash Vijayvargiya, who in the past has led several successful campaigns in Bengal and Haryana was called in with a special team of 100 members to work in Nagpur for the last 2 months with just on mission in sight, reversing the Lok Sabha swing, and they did it by quite a margin.

Vidarbha not only saw 33% of the total 150 seats BJP was contesting in the state, but it also had contest with over 40% of the Congress’ 102 candidates in Maharashtra on this turf. But the BJP was successful to turn its fortunes in Maharashtra with a sweep in Vidarbha this time by winning a magnificent 48 seats out of the 62 up for grabs in Vidarbha, bettering even its 2014 seat share tally in the region by 4 seats. Amongst these were 37 wins of the BJP, 6 of Ajit Pawar’s NCP and 4 of Shiv Sena.

The massive reversal of fortunes in Vidarbha is not just attributed to over 50,000 street corner events that the mega RSS public machinery undertook to raise public awareness this election season across to the state, but is also a result of various developmental factors like the Samruddhi Mahamarg project, and the ₹88,575 crore Wainganga-Nalganga river linking project to irrigate 3.7 lakh hectare in Vidarbha which is expected to turn the tide in the region.

BJP and Mahayuti saw a massive resurgence of vote share in the 2024 assembly elections, with a historic 66.50% voter turnout which was the highest recorded in the state in the last 30 years. The results of which are extremely clear, as BJP marched through the gates of Vidarbha onto the state capital with a landslide win of 235 seats, and an overall alliance vote share of over 48%, with BJP recording over 26.81% vote share in the state, which is 0.8% higher as compared to 2019 state assembly elections, and over 0.4% higher that the general election held earlier this year.