Opposition Within Opposition! Is There Plan To Sideline Congress In INDI Alliance?

New Delhi: The INDI Alliance appears to be facing political turmoil within the bloc following a crushing defeat and disappointing election results in Haryana and Maharashtra. The back-to-back electoral setbacks have sparked debates over the leadership and direction of the coalition, which even seems shattered on picking issues against the ruling BJP-led government at the Centre under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Meanwhile, Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Mamata Banerjee staking a claim to the top position within the INDI Alliance and her move drawing support from parties like Samajwadi Party (SP), Shiv Sena (UBT), has led to sharp opposition from the Congress.

Last year, as many as 26 opposition parties led by the Congress formed the Indian National Developmental Inclusive (INDI) Alliance. The efforts to bring all like-minded opposition parties under one banner appeared to have bored fruits for them, after they managed to grab a good chunk of seats in the Lok Sabha elections, during which the alliance won 236 seats and gave a tough fight to the BJP-led NDA in several prominent states like UP, Maharashtra, Bengal and Rajasthan.

Political experts are emphasizing that as the rift within the INDI Alliance is widening with back-to-back electoral debacles and different political views of the various parties in comparison with the Congress, the Grand Old party appears to be getting sidelined by its own allies.

Here’s a closer look at the current state of the INDI Alliance and the key issues that are threatening to divide its members.

SP-TMC Divergent Views on Adani Issue

The issue surrounding industrialist Gautam Adani has been one of the major points of contention within the opposition bloc as the Samajwadi Party and the TMC have taken a different stand from the Congress. Both the parties have distanced themselves away from this issue which is being continuously raised by Congress-led by Rahul Gandhi.

The TMC had recently boycotted Rahul Gandhi's meeting, arguing that Parliament should not be disrupted by uproar over the issue of one person. The Samajwadi Party has also said that many other issues are more important than this issue.

Sharad Pawar's NCP has already adopted a soft stance on the Adani issue. Interestingly, Congress' Rahul Gandhi is the most aggressive on the Adani issue.

This divergence on the Adani issue showcases the rift between Congress and its partners, with Rahul Gandhi, in particular, appearing increasingly isolated on the matter.

Sambhal Violence Sparks Tensions Between Congress and SP

Another flashpoint has been the recent violence in UP’s Sambhal, following a dispute over an ASI survey of a mosque in the district. The Samajwadi Party has been vocal in accusing the government of fueling the violence and is continuously raising the issue in the Lok Sabha.

However, Congress' approach to the issue has led to tension. Rahul Gandhi, while expressing concern, took a cautious approach, calling for restraint and dialogue, prompting the SP to accuse Congress of playing politics with the issue and undermining the gravity of the situation. Ram Gopal Yadav, the general secretary of SP, accused Congress and called it a drama by the Grand Old party over the issue.

This difference in handling the Sambhal incident has exposed deeper divisions within the opposition ranks, particularly between Congress and SP, which were once seen as natural allies in the fight against the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Leadership Struggles: Mamata Banerjee's Ambitions

Political experts believe that perhaps the most significant rift within the INDI Alliance is over the leadership question. Mamata Banerjee has publicly stated that she should lead the alliance, given her role in its formation. In a bold statement, Banerjee declared that if given the leadership, she would accept the responsibility.

Interestingly, Mamata, who is claiming the top post of the alliance, had decided to go solo in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Mamata’s previous decision to contest the general elections without Congress, in West Bengal, has further complicated the matter. The Congress had contested the elections in Bengal in alliance with the Left parties after Mamata denied them seats.  

Mamata’s claim, however, has not been well-received by Congress, which has historically viewed itself as the natural leader of the opposition bloc.

The Congress, still reeling from its defeats in recent state elections, has remained largely silent on Mamata’s demand, but the leadership dispute has raised eyebrows. Her sudden push for the top post in the alliance is raising questions about her true intentions and the potential sidelining of the Congress within the opposition.

Former Congress MP Sandeep Dixit has gone so far as to accuse Mamata of acting as a "BJP agent" by stirring up such controversies at a time when opposition unity is most needed.

Despite these accusations, Congress has chosen not to publicly challenge Mamata’s statement, which only fuels speculation about the future of the alliance.

Fallout of Recent Election Results

These waves of discord within the alliance are traced back to the poor performance of Congress in the assembly elections of Maharashtra and Haryana, where the party faced significant losses against the ruling BJP. Apart from these two states, poor showings in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, have left Congress vulnerable.

Moreover, regional parties like TMC, SP, and Shiv Sena (UBT) have begun questioning whether Congress should continue to hold the reins in the opposition alliance. The INDI Alliance is composed of several regional players, including Mamata’s TMC, Akhilesh Yadav ’s SP, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP, and the Congress.

While the Congress has not been able to secure victories in key states in the assembly elections, the regional parties, with their strong regional bases, are now more assertive in shaping the alliance's strategy.

AAP Supremo Arvind Kejriwal has already declared that his party will fight separately from Congress in the upcoming assembly elections in Delhi.

As per the political experts, the growing sense of autonomy within regional parties is making Congress increasingly marginalised in the alliance.

What Does This Mean for Congress?

The core question now is whether there is a deliberate attempt to sideline Congress within the INDI Alliance. While Congress remains a key player in terms of its seat count, the regional parties seem to be asserting themselves more vocally, questioning Congress’ leadership in light of its recent electoral failures.

As Mamata Banerjee’s statement continues to create ripples, it remains to be seen whether she will garner enough support to challenge Congress for leadership within the opposition bloc. With allies like Kejriwal, Shiv Sena (UBT), and SP likely to back Mamata, Congress may find itself increasingly sidelined unless it can navigate the shifting dynamics of the alliance and prove its relevance in the upcoming elections.

The INDI Alliance appears to be at a crossroads. The rift over leadership, policy issues, and electoral performance has created a volatile political environment. Whether Congress can reassert itself or whether regional parties will push for a new direction in the opposition remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the coming months will be crucial in determining the future of opposition unity in India.

Notably, after the formation of the INDI Alliance, assembly elections concluded in 12 states and the UT so far. Of which the Congress had a direct contest with the BJP in 4 states, including Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana and in all these states, the BJP registered a thumping victory. The Congress only managed to win Telangana, where it was in direct contest with KCR’s BRS.

Number Game in INDI Alliance

In terms of numbers, Congress has 100 seats in Lok Sabha and 25 seats in Rajya Sabha. Whereas its allies have 136 seats in Lok Sabha and 61 seats in Rajya Sabha.

Trinamool has 28 MPs in Lok Sabha and 12 in Rajya Sabha. Samajwadi Party also has 37 MPs in Lok Sabha and 4 in Rajya Sabha. Shiv Sena (UBT) has 9 MPs in Lok Sabha and 2 in Rajya Sabha. These three have 74 MPs in Lok Sabha and 18 in Rajya Sabha.

Arvind Kejriwal has already announced to fight separately from Congress in Delhi. Kejriwal has 4 Lok Sabha MPs and 10 Rajya Sabha MPs. It is being said that Kejriwal can also come in support of Mamata to push Congress on the back foot.