Published 19:07 IST, January 24th 2019
National Approval Ratings: Despite BJP's West Bengal push, Mamata's TMC projected to dominate elections
TMC is projected keep its 34 seats, and in fact, increase its vote share from 2014 (39.8 to 43.7%)
Just months ahead of the much-awaited Lok Sabha polls, Republic TV, in association with C-Voter, has come up with the fourth edition of the National Approval Ratings to determine how the elections could pan out should they be held in January.
One of the biggest states which will impact the upcoming Lok Sabha polls will be West Bengal. In 2014, the ruling party in the state, Mamata Banerjee's TMC won 34 seats, and despite the massive claims by BJP that they would win a minimum of 23 seats, the situation is projected to remain the same.
TMC is projected keep its 34 seats, and in fact, increase its vote share from 2014 (39.8 to 43.7%). BJP, while not winning the number of seats it has been claiming in its recent rallies, is projected to win seven seats with a vote share of 31.8%, a massive rise in comparison to 2014. The Congress-led UPA will be relegated to just one seat with a vote share of less than 10%.
Comparison to the previous editions:
TMC: The situation for Mamata in January looks very promising in comparison to the previous months' editions of NAR. In October, her party was projected to win just 25 seats, while in the subsequent months, TMC was winning 32 seats. Now, the projection is of 34 seats. A rise of 9 seats in the space of three months will bode perfectly for Mamata Banerjee and her party ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.
NDA: The BJP-led NDA's situation is in complete contrast to TMC in West Bengal. In the first edition of NAR, ie in October, they were projected to win 16 seats, an astronomical rise when compared to 2014. Though, their seat share fell down to 9 in the months of November and December, and is projected to fall down further should elections be held in January.
UPA: Congress-led UPA had won 4 seats in 2014, but their situation ahead of 2019 looks bleak. In each of the NAR editions, including the January one, they are being projected to win just one seat.
CPM: The biggest losers from the gains made by BJP from 2014 will be the CPM. The once dominant force of West Bengal is projected to not even get one seat, despite it's vote share being higher than that of the UPA.
(The results of 2019 Lok Sabha elections may or may not reflect the results or scenarios of the state assembly elections, nevertheless, to establish where we stand at present, Republic TV and CVoter has presented the National Approval Ratings.)
Updated 20:43 IST, January 24th 2019