National Approval Ratings: Huge gains projected for Jagan Reddy's YSRCP as Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu lands himself on a sticky wicket

The political situation in and because of Andhra Pradesh, particularly on account of its chief minister Chandrababu Naidu, makes for a highly interesting study in the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in the state. In 2018, Naidu's TDP has walked out of its long-standing alliance with the BJP over the issue of special category status for the state, and as recently as Thursday, he has been projecting himself on the national stage. Now, Republic TV-CVoter's National Approval Ratings have shed light on how the political flux may have affected matters on-ground in the context of elections.

Here is the Republic TV-CVoter National Approval Rating projection for the state of Andhra Pradesh, which sends 25 representatives to Parliament:

The projections that immediately stick out is the BJP not winning any seats, and the TDP being significantly reduced, if elections were to be held today. In 2014, in alliance with Naidu's TDP, the BJP had won 2 seats on its own, while the NDA won 17. In the projection, the TDP has lost massively, from 15 seats in 2014 to just 5. The winner, at the BJP and TDP's expense, is Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSRCP, which had won 8 seats in 2014 but is projected to win 20 seats if polls were held today. The Congress has been reduced to less than a footnote, staying at zero representation in the Lok Sabha from Andhra Pradesh. 

Coming to voteshare, the NDA had managed 47.7% in 2014, with Naidu's TDP itself managing 40.8%. In the projections, however, the BJP has actually increased its individual voteshare to 11.3%, while the TDP has fallen to 31.2%. Remarkably, the YSRCP, which had a voteshare of 45.4% in 2014, is projected to see that figure fall to 41.35%, despite the fact that it's seat share projection is booming. The Congress, in this case, is projected to increase its voteshare from 2.9% in 2014 to 9.3% (which is projected to not translate into seats, however.)

In comparison to last month's projections:

Since the projections a month earlier, the TDP and its biggest rival, the YSRCP, have swapped one seat. Earlier, the YSRCP was projected to win 21, which has fallen to 20, while TDP has increased its projection from 4 to 5. The biggest gainer in terms of voteshare is Congress, which has increased its projection from 7.2% to 9.3%, while the BJP's projection has dropped by 1.2%.