National Approval Ratings: In Maharashtra, Congress-led UPA projected to defeat BJP and Shiv Sena, here's the full picture

Weeks ahead of the Lok Sabha polls that will decide the fate of the political scenario in the country, parties are intensely figuring out their seat-sharing terms, deciding on their alleged alliance with other parties, or fielding their prominent candidates from various states. Amid the intense political discourse, Republic TV and CVoter are back with the January edition of National Approval Ratings to give a complete national picture as to who will win if polls are held today. In the political heated state of Maharashtra, there are 48 Lok Sabha seats which are eyed by key player - BJP, INC, NCP and Shiv Sena.

In a major turn of events, the currently ruling BJP is projected to lose big in the state, majorly in terms of seat share. The Congress, which has confirmed an alliance with NCP, is predicted to take the lead as their alliance UPA is projected to win 28 seats, leaving the BJP at 16 seats, which is equal to the projection of the last edition. Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, a significant player in Maharashtra, is predicted to lose massively, winning only two seats.

Talking about the vote share, a slight difference is predicted between the vote share of Congress-led UPA and BJP-led NDA in Maharashtra with the parties projected to get 42.4 % and 38.4% votes respectively. In spite of the strong push for the construction of Ram Mandir by Shiv Sena leaders, the party is projected to get only 11.4 percent votes. 

​​​​​​Here's the projection for Maharashtra:

Seat-share projections:

UPA - 28
NDA - 16
Shiv Sena - 4
Others - 1

Vote-share projections:

UPA - 42.4
NDA - 38.4
Shiv Sena - 11.4
Others - 0

In the December edition, UPA was projected to win 30 seats, with the NDA only managing 16. Shiv Sena was predicted to win the remaining two seats, leaving zero seats for Others.

The November edition of the National Approval Ratings, had predicted that BJP-led NDA would manage to win 23 seats, one more than what was projected in the first edition. Congress-led UPA was projected to grow by two seats in comparison to the previous month, winning 14 seats. NCP and Shiv Sena were the two parties to lose out, falling down to 6 and 5 seats respectively.

The election year 2019 started off with India’s opposition appearing largely unwilling to acquiesce to Rahul Gandhi's proposal of the Congress serving as a platform for regional parties to come together in order to defeat the BJP. Despite the Congress successes in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, in Uttar Pradesh, the much-heralded Mahagathbandhan turned out to just be a 'Gathbandhan' as old enemies Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati left the Congress out, forming an SP-BSP alliance. Left on its own, the Congress resolved to contest every one of the state's 80 seats and proceeded to formally induct Priyanka Gandhi Vadra into the party, appointing her and Jyotiraditya Scindia as General Secretaries for Uttar Pradesh. Elsewhere, former Gujarat CM Shankarsinh Vaghela is to join the NCP, while the Congress alliance with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh is also in doubt. Meanwhile, the BJP and Shiv Sena may have witnessed a thaw in their relationship with the Maharashtra government sanctioning Rs 100 crore for a Balasaheb Thackeray memorial. 

On issues concerning large numbers of people, the government passed a constitutional amendment giving a green signal to provide 10 percent reservation in jobs and educational institutions to economically weaker sections in the general category, while numerous agrarian schemes that needn't necessarily be farm-loan waivers have also been spoken of in the lead-up to the Modi government's final budget.