National Approval Ratings: In space of a month, BJP's West Bengal seat share projection drops by 7, as Mamata's TMC gains big

Even in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP-led NDA alliance reduced the long-ruling Congress to its lowest ever Lok Sabha representation, the state of West Bengal remained a step too far, as the Trinamool Congress, led by WB chief minister Mamata Banerjee secured 34 of the state's 42 seats. The intervening four-and-a-half years have seen the BJP pulling out all the stops to make a foothold in Banerjee's bastion, and the Republic TV-CVoter National Approval Ratings for November have projected the extent to which the party has been successful.

Here is the National Approval Rating for West Bengal -- essentially, who would win if elections were held in November:

As is clear, the NDA is projected to have gained a fairly substantial number of seats (9 in total) in comparison to the 2 seats it won in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, even though, in essence, with a 32-seats projection the TMC is projected to retain a similar seat share as the 34 in the previous elections. 

The Congress, meanwhile, is projected to lose 3 of the 4 seats it won in 2014, leaving it with a seat-share of only 1, while the CPI(M), a traditional power in West Bengal, is projected to be wiped out, with a seat share of 0 compared to two seats in 2014.

In vote share terms, the BJP is projected to gain from 16.9% (2014) to 31.5%, while the TMC will also gain from 39.8% (2014) to 41.2%. The CPI(M) is projected to lose heavily in terms of vote-share, from 29.6% in 2014 to 14.5%. The Congress is projected to have seen its vote-share decline from 9.7% (2014) to 7.8%.

In comparison to the National Approval Ratings for October:

Remarkably, the BJP was in a far stronger position just a month ago in the previous National Approval Rating where it was projected to secure 16 seats versus 7 in November. The TMC is projected to have gained 7 seats in the process, while for the Congress and CPI(M), it's status-quo.

In vote-share terms, the BJP is actually projected to have gained 0.3% in comparison to a month ago, while the TMC has made an even bigger gain, by 1.6% as compared to the October projection. 

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