National Approval Ratings: In Uttar Pradesh, seat share drop projected for NDA while Mahagathbandhan projected to win 44

Over the last five year, India's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh has played arguably the biggest role in the BJP's most critical electoral successes. Not only did the party win an astonishing 73 Lok Sabha seats out of 80 in the 2014 general elections, but three years later, in the state elections it repeated the feat by winning 312 seats in the 403-seat Uttar Pradesh assembly. With months to go before the 2019 general elections, the Republic TV-CVoter National Approval Ratings have given a sense of where the key political players in the state would stand if elections were held today, i.e. in November.

Here are the National Approval Ratings for Uttar Pradesh if the elections were held in November 2018:

As is apparent, the projection for the NDA would be a worry for PM Modi, Amit Shah and UP CM Yogi Adityanath, with the ruling coalition dropping from 73 seats in 2014 to just 31 Lok Sabha seats. The Rahul Gandhi-led UPA, which won just 2 seats in 2014, would be in line to increase its seat share to 5, while the traditional Uttar Pradesh regional powers (and former rivals), Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, are projected to be the biggest gainers, increasing their combined seat share from just 5 in 2014 (of which BSP won none) to 44.

While the seat equilibrium is projected to have shifted in comparison to 2014, in terms of voteshare, things are different. The BJP secured 42.4% voteshare in 2014 and is projected to gain 1.5% to 43.9% in the National Approval Ratings. The UPA's voteshare, on the other hand, drops by 3.1% to 7.9%, while the SP and BSP are projected to accrue a combined voteshare of 44.7%. 

Comparison with October National Approval Ratings:

Interestingly, since the previous edition of National Approval Ratings, in October, the NDA's seatshare projection has dropped by a very substantive 5 seats from 36. The UPA, on the other hand, is projected to have increased its seatshare from 2 to 5, while the Mahagathbandhan (SP+BSP) are projected to have gained 2 seats from 42 in October.

Salient points:

• BJP sees a month-on-month fall of 0.4% in vote share which translates to a 5 seat fall.
• Congress sees a 3-seat-gain and a 2.2% gain in vote share.
• Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati's Mahagathbandhan sees a 2-seat-gain despite a 0.1% fall in vote-share.
• There is a clear indication that there has been a direct transfer of 5 seats that BJP was projected to gain last month to the Congress and Mahagathbandhan. 

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The alternative scenario:

• If Mayawati and the BSP decide to contest alone and there is a break up of the Mahaghatbandhan, the NDA can get as many as 70 seats which puts the BJP right back at the strength that they achieved in 2014, when the party won 73 out of 80 seats
• Alternatively, if the Mahagathbandhan goes with the Congress it will be the best case scenario for the Congress, with the UPA taking its present UP tally of 2 to 56