Published 17:34 IST, September 15th 2020
Coronavirus will become seasonal flu once herd immunity is achieved: Study
The study warned that the COVID-19 will become seasonal flu without public health interventions and will continue to spread as witnessed across the world.
A new study claims that coronavirus disease will likely become seasonal after herd immunity is achieved across regions. The study, published in the journal Frontiers in Public Health, warned that the SARS COVID-19 will become seasonal flu without public health interventions and will continue to spread as witnessed in many countries around the world. Researchers of the study, however, pointed out that the rate of transmission will significantly drop once herd immunity is attained.
Herd immunity is achieved when a large number of the population becomes immune to a virus through natural infections or through vaccinations.
'Learn to live with it'
Hassan Zaraket from the American University of Beirut in Lebanon and one of the authors of the study said that the public will have to learn to live with the virus as it is here to stay and will continue to cause outbreaks year-round like other seasonal flu.
"The basic reproduction number (R0) is the number of secondary cases resulting from a primary case in a susceptible population and is an important indicator to predict the spread of a virus. For a virus to follow a seasonal pattern, and thus wane in summer, its effective R0 should drop below 1. For SARS-CoV, the R0 is estimated between 2 and 3 and in some estimates as high as 5.7," the study said.
"As discussed above, several factors in the summer might reduce the effective R0 of respiratory viruses including the effect of warm temperatures and humidity on the stability of the virus and susceptibility of the host as well as behavior of the population such as indoor crowding. For the seasonal influenza virus, its R0 is estimated to be 1.27. Therefore, these aforementioned factors could easily drop the effective R0 to below 1 in summer halting the virus spread and resulting in the observed seasonal pattern of flu," it added.
The authors in the study basically argued the previous claims that COVID-19 transmits more easily in countries with relatively cool conditions and that transmission is reduced in sites with high temperatures and high relative humidity. They said that unlike other flu, the factor governing the seasonality of COVID-19 cannot yet halt the spread of the disease in summer. But the authors added that if herd immunity is achieved transmission rate will likely drop.
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Updated 17:33 IST, September 15th 2020