Opinion: The Geopolitical Ripples from the Russia-Ukraine war

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not only been influencing the current world order but has also been immensely affecting global geopolitics. This is so because it has created ripples in geopolitics and has influenced the reorganisation of political factions and their adjustments. This conflict is now no more limited to Russia and Ukraine as it has encircled the entire globe so much so that a war crisis situation has emerged, especially after the pandemic.

What is revealing is that it has not only enhanced Europe’s economic problems but also forced it into the US' decisions. As a result, the Asian states have taken the advantage to become a pointer to new emerging power equations. Yet, most of them are hedging their bets and are unwilling to take sides. Many of them have withstood US pressure and are importing cheaper Russian oil and carrying out trading in local currencies. But both Japan and South Korea, which perceive themselves as part of a global alliance of democratic forces and have close security ties with the US, have condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

(A Ukrainian solider walks through the rubble of a building heavily damaged by Russian bombardments in Kharkiv, Ukraine; Image: AP)

Japan has territorial disputes with both China and Russia but has flourishing trade with both of them. At the regional level in Asia, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has created a geopolitically fragmented West Asia, where Iraq is moving away from Iran, Qatar from Saudi Arabia, and UAE is pursuing a more independent foreign policy. Turkey has emerged as a big factor as it has military muscle to back its allies, and controls traffic from the Black Sea, which allows it to play a major role in the revival of food exports from Ukraine. Though Iran is not directly affected by the conflict, it appears to have emerged as a major game changer in the future. In South Asia, Pakistan is on the verge of collapse as its economy has been adversely impacted by the conflict in addition to other major issues like soaring oil prices and the shortage of wheat.

Similarly, Bangladesh has also been deeply impacted by the conflict in terms of exports and imports as Russia is an important market for its readymade garments besides being a major source of wheat and millet supplies. Decreasing exports and rising import bills, coupled with a disruption of supply lines due to war and sanctions, have severely impacted the global economy. It is obvious that the US is struggling to blend in order to rearrange and restructure its approach towards its partners. In fact, one can witness that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is providing a chance for the US and other nations to restore their relationship. A notable change is visible in the attitude of developing nations who have now demonstrated their own approach and integrity by not following the US but concentrating on their own national interests.

(US President Joe Biden (left) with Russian President Vladimir Putin (right); Image: AP)

The US envisions cooperation with India as crucial to helping ease Washington’s concerns over the destabilising activities of China in the Indo-Pacific. The US also sees Russia as a strategic threat. India, however, has a historic and enduring relationship with Russia focussing on strong economic, diplomatic and military ties. Russia is a significant supplier of arms to India accounting for about US$13 billion in the last five years. India also imported a record high of Russian crude oil of about 1.6 million barrels per day in February 2023. A complicating factor for India’s strategy, however, is the continuing alignment of Russia and China because of the Kremlin’s isolation from the West over its war on Ukraine. India is promoting itself as a leader in the Global South and remains an enthusiastic member of the BRICS which also includes China, Russia, South Africa and Brazil.

(Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, PM Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (left to right) during the 2019 BRICS meeting; Image: PTI)

There is a remarkable change in international affairs as several countries have shown a range of reactions toward the US and Russia with regard to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. India and Iran have taken a relatively neutral position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and have not bothered with the US sanctions against Russia. They have taken a measured and balanced approach in this situation and made choices based on their own national interests. In such a scenario, the US is trying its best to accommodate itself with opportunities as well as challenges in such regions as South Asia or West Asia. This is so because the rising energy prices have had both positive and negative effects on energy-producing countries.

On the positive side, rising prices have led to increased revenue and higher international status for energy-rich countries. There is a development transformation among regional partners. On the negative connotation, the risk of food crisis has reached beyond control giving way to the state of constant fluctuations in the relationship between nations. Many non-traditional security challenges are beyond repair as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is continuing so are the challenges. It now appears that the three superpowers, China, Russia, and the US, will continue to occupy the space on the vertex of the triangle where other developing countries and energy-rich countries will have to play tactfully for their own interests without any outside interference. India’s policies towards Russia can best be characterised as an example of its multi-alignment strategy. India enjoys a unique position and has excellent diplomatic relations with Iran, Israel and Arab countries. The US, on the other hand, would like to have full support from India in order to balance Russia-China ties in the current situation. As China has been trying to strengthen its political influence in the West Asia region, it remains interested in strengthening its relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two largest and richest countries in the Gulf.

(Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister with Ali Shamkhani (right) ,the secretary of Iran’s security council, and Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban (left) Saudi Arabia’s minister of state; Image: CGTN)

On the other hand, Russia is humming along in West Asia, pitching arms sales, building nuclear plants, and convening summits. Now with the recent visit of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the US as a state guest and the warm welcome offered by the Biden administration is obvious to picture which shows the anxiousness of the US to balance the Russia-China closeness. Yet, what India has been doing can be seen through the prism of its making serious efforts to reduce the gap between developed and developing nations.

(PM Narendra Modi with US President Joe Biden at the White House during his state visit; Image: AP)

The author, Dr. Vaishali Krishna, is an Assistant Professor of the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.

(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts, analysis, assumptions, and perspectives appearing in the article do not reflect the views of Republic TV/ Republic World/ ARG Outlier Media Pvt. Ltd.)