Islam's 'Great Game' and the Arab-Israel Peace

Turkish historical drama series – Diliris: Ertugrul - is a rage with subcontinent’s Muslims these days. A reimagination of the battles of early Ottomans in overthrowing the Byzantines through the life of founder of the Ottoman empire Usman’s father – Ertugrul Ghazi – the series is the Turkish version of India’s Bahubali in grandeur and scale of production, with the religious idiom yoking worldwide Muslim audiences to the drama. Except for Saudi Arabia i.e. The nation that is the custodian of the two holiest of Islamic mosques in Mecca and Medina has not only banned Ertugrul but announced a counter series – Malik e Nar – that seeks to retrieve Arab pride from what it sees as a clear push for Turkish imperialism in the garb of Islam. Ertugrul might be historical fantasy, but a real battle has been playing out in the Ummah, with Turkey strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan attempting to claim the space till now occupied by the House of Sauds, which is not only being strongly contested but repulsed as well. 

It is in this backdrop that the Abraham Accord announced by the United States president Donald Trump – establishing full diplomatic relationship between Israel and the United Arab Emirates – must be seen. The Arab détente with the Jewish nation state was in the making for a while now. Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu had made public overtures to the Arabs in his first foreign policy speech after taking over as PM for the second time from the Bar Ilan University on June 14, 2009. Incidentally, the Abraham Accord comes on the 11th anniversary of that famous speech in which Netanyahu conceded for the first time – in good measure if not fully – the reality of a Palestinian state. During his January 2018 State visit to India, he had hinted of some ‘dramatic and big’ changes in Israel’s relationship with the Gulf states minus Iran in an interview to yours truly at the iconic Taj Hotel in Mumbai.

“…But I am encouraged by the change that we see in the Arab world. It is a big change. So dramatic, I wish I could share with you all the stories about what’s happening. But it is a monumental change…unimaginable…I have never seen in my lifetime before that principle Arab states now see Israel not as an enemy but as an ally in the battle against terrorism,” Netanyahu had told me in the interview. 

A brief history

While answer to the Palestine question would still take some time, the recognition of Israel by UAE, and possibly by the Saudis in near future, is an important milestone in the intractable Middle East conflict. Discounting for the shadow of the American presidential election, make no mistake, the accord would be long standing, and go down as a legacy achievement of the Trump presidency. But that’s beside the point. UAE becomes the third Arab country after Egypt and Jordan to make peace with Israel. Following an agreement on Sinai Peninsula in 1979, Egypt had buried the hatchet with Israel, with the latter vacating all 18 settlements in the territory captured in the 1967 Six-day war. Similarly, Jordan signed a peace deal in 1994 and established full diplomatic relations with Israel which have matured despite many ups and downs.

Attempts of Gulf countries to admit to the reality of Israel go back to at least 2002 when the Arab Peace Initiative sought to recognize Israel in return of a freeze on any further expansion of settlements, and ultimate return to pre-1967 borders with East Jerusalem as Capital of Palestine. It would have effectively overturned the 1967 Khartoum resolution that prevented any Arab nation from recognizing or establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. Unfortunately, announcement eve bombing by Hamas of a seaside hotel in Netanya, north of Tel Aviv, killing 30 Israelis – in what came to be known as the Passover massacre – put paid to the efforts. A similar effort in 2005 was thwarted again, this time with then Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad calling for “Israel to be wiped off the face of Earth,” on the eve of a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) meeting that was to take up the issue of recognition of Israel. The Saudis again got involved in 2007, brokering the short-lived Hamas-Fatah unity government through the Mecca agreement, which floundered within three months owing to irreconcilable differences between the respective leaders of Hamas and Fatah.

Bridging the Gulf

Led by Saudi Arabia, much of the Arab world including UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Egypt have been modernising over the last decade, visibly distancing themselves from the radical strains of Islam associated with organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic State. But if only things were that simple. Qatar has played the joker of the pack. Not only has it kept its links with Iran open, it has hosted Taliban’s government-in-exile, and most importantly, from the Saudi perspective, cultivated ties with Erdogan. It did not help that Qatar owned television network Al Jazeera played an activist role in the Arab spring, not liked by the House of the Sauds. It is this layered complexity of the relationships within the Middle East that has unravelled with the signing of the Abraham Accord. Both Saudia and the UAE have realised the significance of moving fast to be ready for the post-Oil economy. Indeed, as the recent crash of oil prices into negative territory amid the COVID pandemic shutdowns showed, the world could learn to live without oil sooner than expected. Both, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and UAE under Crown Princes Mohammed Bin Salman and Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan respectively, have been assiduously working to adjust their nations to that reality. Nahyan, who is one of the troika that helped shape the UAE-Israel deal, has led from the front in making the Emirates a mecca of post-industrial development, centred around trade and services industry. Backed by their oil wealth nourished sovereign funds, the Arabs have been diversifying into global assets that has resulted in enmeshed business interests and symbiotic relationships with the West. UAE does not share borders with Israel, nor has gone to war with it ever. But for the Palestine question, peace became a natural corollary. Not that Palestine has been left high and dry, just that the Arabs increasingly realize their forward planning cannot be held hostage to the unyielding emotions of Hamas. 

Talking Turkey

That’s where the ban on Ertugrul becomes relevant. Recently, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was all praise for the Turkish series, showcasing it as the epitome of Islamic achievement that should inspire youngsters in Pakistan. Last year, along with Turkey, Pakistan had planned a Muslim nations conference in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, that was an attempt to appropriate leadership of the Islamic world away from the Arabs. Erdogan was the inspiration behind the move, and both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi read the riot act to Pakistan, which immediately withdrew. A few days back, Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi threatened to split the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) as the Saudis did not acquiesce to a Pakistani request for a Kashmir-focused conference. Furious Riyadh hit back by withdrawing soft loans that were granted to keep the Pakistani economy afloat last year, and threatened repatriation of Pakistani labour force. Rushing of Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa has not helped. In a royal snub, Bajwa was refused an audience with the Crown Prince, and the decisions on loans have not been taken back. The Game of Thrones in the Islamic world is fully on. 

Air India

A couple of months after Netanyahu’s interview to Republic, in which he spoke of some dramatic and wonderful things that were happening between Israel and the Arab world, an Air India flight AI 139 flew over the Saudi airspace to land at the David Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv on March 23, 2018. It was the first international airline allowed to do so in over three decades, cutting down the flying time between New Delhi and Israeli capital by more than two hours. Earlier the entire airspace over the Persian Gulf was not available to fly owing to the impact of the 1967 Khartoum resolution which prohibited any Arab contact with Israel. El Al still cannot use that airspace, though things might change. On the occasion, Israeli Tourism Minister Yariv Levin’s comment hinted at India’s relevance and possible role in what was to come. I hope with times we have more and more normal relations with our neighbours in this region. “India played a very important bridge, not only between us, but also between Israel and other countries in this region,” he told news agency PTI. Am sure there is a lot that happened behind the scenes that would remain in classified domain for now. It might not be incidental that Prime Minister Narendra Modi received highest civilian awards by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Palestine! Afghanistan and Maldives are the other two Muslim nations to confer that honour on him. President Trump explained the naming of the Abraham Accord as coming together of all the three Abrahamic faiths – Christianity, Judaism, and Islam. There might have been an invisible hand of Manu too. Let us keep it for later.