MS Dhoni, The Untold Theory: Decoding MSD's strategy to take games deep

There has been a lot of frenzy around this year's IPL (Indian Premier League). The marquee tournament returns to the home-and-away format after a long haul of three years and has been extremely competitive if we look at the logjam at the points table. The tournament is nearing its business end and the last league game will be played on May 21, 2023, but seven teams are still alive in the race to qualify for the remaining three spots. Four-time champions Chennai Super Kings are at 15 points with one game to go, will they get into the qualifier or the elinminator is yet to be seen. This certainly raises an age-old question that over the years, why has MS Dhoni preferred to take games to the deep end in a multi-team tournament? To understand this, one has to understand how the NRR (net run rate scenario works).

Here's how the NRR (Net Run Rate) scenario works

As far as multi-team tournaments like the IPL go, Net Run Rate plays a huge part in deciding the final four. When things get intense and multiple teams are tied on the same point, Net Run Rate comes into effect and has the final say in deciding the contenders of playoffs or semi-finals. Let us take a hypothetical situation, imagine Team A scores 160 runs in their quota of 20 overs, their run rate will be 8, pretty simple right? It means that Team B will have to score at 8 runs per over to achieve the stipulated target. 

Scenario 1:

Now let's say that Rajasthan Royals are facing Chennai Super Kings. Rajasthan scored 216 runs off designated 20 overs at 10.8 runs per over. In reply, CSK scored 200 runs off 20 overs at a run rate of 10 and fall short by 16 runs. After this match, Rajasthan's Net Run Rate will be +0.800 (10.8-10)

Scenario 2:

Imagine this time around Mumbai Indians are facing Rajasthan Royals. Mumbai score 193 runs off their designated 20 overs at a run rate of 9.65. In reply, Rajasthan fail to chase the target down and bundle out on 136 runs in 18.1 overs at a run rate of 7.48. But will the net run rate be calculated based on Rajasthan's 18.1 overs? The answer to this is no, there is a rule in the calculation of net run rate that if any team bundles out before the completion of 120 balls, the Run Rate will still be calculated based on 20 overs. With this rule in effect, Rajasthan's actual run rate becomes 6.80. No, if we calculate the Royals' net run rate it becomes -2.85 (6.80-9.65).

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Here's why MS Dhoni takes the game deep

Former Indian team skipper and CSK's leader MS Dhoni has always emphasized on his method of taking the game deep down and taking care of the proceedings in the final overs on numerous occasions. As mentioned earlier, even if a team crumbles before the completion of 20 overs, their run rate will be calculated based on the 120 balls bowled and this negatively impacts the NRR (Net Run Rate). Dhoni has batted at numbers 6 and 7 for most of the time in his illustrious career and is often left to bat and chase down totals with the tailenders on the other side. Just to avoid the negative impact of the run rate rule, Dhoni prefers to take the game till the last over so that the team does not suffer any negative repercussions in the long run when things boil down to the NRR (net run rate).

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There have been rumours that the CSK skipper is playing his last IPL and will bid adieu to his association with the yellow jersey. No denying the fact that he is 41 years old and is currently dealing with a knee injury. This particular season, he has heavily relied on power hitting but has scored with a strike rate of 196.00. Will MSD lead Chennai Super Kings to their fifth IPL victory? all of us have to wait for this answer.