How can Germany qualify for FIFA World Cup 2022 knockouts after shock defeat to Japan?

Day 4 of FIFA World Cup 2022 Qatar witnessed another major upset after Day 3 saw Lionel Messi-led Argentina lose to Saudi Arabia. While Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia by 2-1 on Tuesday, it was Germany who found themselves in the headlines due to a major defeat at the hands of Japan. Japan recovered from being 0-1 in the first half of the Group E match to script a sensational 2-1 win at the Khalifa International Stadium.

The day ended with Spain reaching the top of the Group E standings, while Japan found itself in the second spot, with the German side dropping to third. Germany will face Spain on November 28 in their next game, before clashing against Costa Rica on December 2. Here’s what Germany needs to do in order to qualify for the knockout stage of the ongoing FIFA World Cup. 

FIFA World Cup 2022 qualification scenario for Germany

While the top two teams from every group qualify for the Round of 16, Germany needs victories in both their remaining games to have the best chances for qualification. Two wins would take their points tally to six and would ensure a top-spot finish, depending on other results. However, there is still a scenario that might lead to three teams finishing Group E with six points.

If three teams have six points each in their tally, one of these teams will miss out on qualification on the basis of goal difference. This suggests that Germany needs to score more goals than Spain and Costa Rica in their next games to boost their chances of making it to the knockout stage. However, the 2014 World Cup winners would find it difficult to advance if they lose one of their next two games.

What if Germany loses another Group E match?

In case the No. 11 ranked squad returns with a draw and a win, they will have four points to their name and would depend on other results in the group. A loss against Spain or Costa Rica might also end the four-time World Champions’ hopes of winning another title to their name. It is pertinent to mention that Germany was knocked out of the 2018 edition of the marquee tournament without advancing into the knockout stage.

In case they lose another match, they would require to emerge as the winner in the remaining match and hope Spain, Costa Rica and Japan win all of their games without any draws. If this happens, the group topper would have nine points in their tally, while others would be at three points each. This would again bring goal difference into play. However, it is pertinent to mention that Spain’s goal difference has been boosted heavily with their 7-0 win over Costa Rica.