ATP Tour rubbishes claim of Rafael Nadal struggling in cold conditions with top statistics

After much umming and ahhing, French Open 2020 finally got underway on September 21. While the general consensus is that this was a great move for tennis, players have not had the best time at the tournament. Used to playing the marquee clay-court event in the Paris spring, the players have had a hard time adjusting to the conditions at French Open 2020. Among the most outspoken critics of this change in conditions is the 12-time French Open winner, Rafael Nadal. 

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What is bothering players at French Open 2020?

At French Open 2020, cold weather has seemingly posed a hurdle through the competition. Due to the pandemic, the French Open was postponed from May 24 to September 27. This led to a radical change in weather conditions at the event. Not only has this forced players to layer up, but it has also altered how the ball behaves. Most of the speed and bounce that players are so used to is missing this year due to the rain-soaked clay court and damp weather. 

Rafael Nadal's game is heavily dependent on the topspin produced by the hard-baked clay, which he uses to bounce shots above the eye-line of his opponents. After his round one win over Egor Gerasimov, Nadal complained about the organizers' decision to switch their ball sponsors from Babolat to Wilson. According to Nadal, this is the wrong kind of ball to use on a clay court in the humid, cold conditions in Paris. 

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ATP Tour's statistical defence of Nadal's performance in cold conditions

Despite his complaints, Rafa has not struggled at all on his way to the quarter-finals. His quick adaptation to the conditions has been hailed by icons such as Boris Becker and his coach Carlos Moya. With his major weapon rendered useless, Rafa has brought out his second-best bet - longer rallies. 

Using an ATP Tour Infosys Beyond The Numbers analysis of rally lengths in round one this year and in 2017, when the weather conditions were extremely hot, the ATP tour has put to bed the theory of the cold hampering Nadal's game. According to the statistics, rallies of the 0-4 shot length have fallen from 71% in 2017 to 53% in round one this year. This is a clear indication that players are adjusting their games to suit the conditions. Rallies of 9+ shots have increased by 8%, while rallies of 5-8 shots have seen an increase of 10%. 

In his four games at French Open 2020, Rafa has dominated rallies that go beyond the 4-shot mark. He already has a 60% win rate in shorter rallies, but what's really impressive is the 65% win rate once the rallies go beyond 4 shots. If Rafa is producing a 65% win rate on unfavourable conditions, it is little wonder that he is the 'King of Clay'. 

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Image Credits: ATP Tour Twitter