Nadal, Tsitsipas or Alcaraz, who'll be year-end No.1 after ATP Finals? Scenario explained

The season-ending ATP World Tour Finals 2022 gets underway on Sunday evening in Turin, Italy. After winning two Grand Slam titles in 2022, 23-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal will be the top seed in Turin. At the same time, Greek tennis player Stefanos Tsitsipas will be the no. 2 seed in the tournament.   

Meanwhile, the current No.1 ranked player in the ATP rankings, Carlos Alcaraz will miss the tournament due to an abdominal injury. With Carlos out of the tournament, it is possible that he might be replaced by either Nadal or Tsitsipas at the top of the ATP men’s singles rankings. Alcaraz suffered the injury at the Paris Masters earlier this month, which brought a premature end to his 2022 campaign.

Heading into the ATP Finals 2022, Nadal might become the No. 1 ranked tennis player for the first time in two years and for the sixth time in his career. On the other hand, Tsitsipas could climb to the top spot for the first time in his career, without even winning a Grand Slam till now. Here’s a look at the different scenarios of how Carlos, Rafael, and Stefanos can finish the year-ending championships as the No.1 ranked player.

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Rafael Nadal's predicted route to World No. 1 in the ATP rankings

Rafael Nadal can achieve the milestone by either winning the ATP Finals 2022 or finishing the tournament as runner-up with a 4-1 record while hoping that Tsitsipas loses one of his matches. Nadal has never won the ATP Finals trophy in his career and finished as runner-up in 2010 and 2013. The 36-year-old will now be looking to end his 2022 campaign with both the ATP Finals trophy and the No. 1 ranking.

Stefanos Tsitsipas' predicted route to World No. 1 in ATP rankings

Stefanos Tsitsipas can become the No. 1 ranked player by winning the ATP Finals 2022, which will be his 2nd year-end title. Tsitsipas won the tournament back in 2017 and hasn’t had the best of records in the ATP Finals ever since. However, coming off a final finish in Astana and Stockholm, alongside a semi-final finish in Paris, Tsitsipas can now earn the No. 1 ranked tennis player tag.

How can Carlos Alcaraz hold onto No.1 ranking despite not playing ATP Finals?

Carlos Alcaraz, meanwhile, hopes any player other than Nadal and Tsitsipas win the year-ending ATP Finals 2022. He is currently 1000 points ahead of Nadal, and around 1500 points ahead of Tsitsipas. Despite not participating in the tournament, it is likely that Alcaraz will finish the tournament as the No. 1 ranked tennis player.