'If no vaccine, India likely to see 2.87 lakh Covid cases a day by Feb 2021': MIT's latest

India might witness the worst figures of the coronavirus pandemic early next year in the absence of a vaccine, a team of researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has claimed in the most recent foreign study detailing impending doom. According to their prediction, India might record 2.87 lakh coronavirus COVID-19 cases per day by February 2021 if the process of vaccine remains elusive. The researchers used data from about 84 countries spanning an estimated 4.75 billion people. 

MIT researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, John Sterman, and PhD candidate Tse Yang Lim, used the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model for their study.  The SEIR model is a standard mathematical model for infectious diseases used by epidemiologists.

The researchers showed that the top ten countries that will project daily infection rates at the end of winter 2021 are India with 2.87 lakh infections per day, the United States with 95,000 cases per day, South Africa with 21,000 cases per day, followed by Iran, Indonesia, the UK, Nigeria, Turkey, France, and Germany.  They further said that the total number of coronavirus cases worldwide would reach around 25 crore by May 2021 if a vaccine remains elusive. It is important to note here that foreign studies regarding the Covid outbreak in India have been forecasting stratospheric numbers since March, but have been widely off the mark, with India's Covid spread adjusted for population and density is way lower down on the global list than its current third position in terms of total Covid cases suggests.  

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Research Projection on three scenarios

The researchers took into account three scenarios for their projection: 1) the current testing rates and their response, 2) if testing increases by 0.1 per cent per day from July 1, 2020, and 3) if testing remains at current levels but contact rate to perceived risk is set to 8 - that is if one infected person can infect eight people.

In the first scenario, the researchers predicted that coronavirus cases would rise to 1.55 billion in 84 countries. But if testing is increased by 0.1 per cent per day in these countries, then cases would rise to 1.37 billion as per the second scenario.

Both these scenarios project a very large burden of new cases in the fall that is between September to November 2020, with hundreds of millions of cases concentrated in a few countries estimated to have insufficient responses given perceived risks; primarily India, but also Bangladesh, Pakistan, and USA. In contrast, changes in response policies would make a major difference, the study said.

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The researchers also said that if testing rates remain at the current level, but the contact rate is set to 8, then the number of cases and fatalities would decline significantly. As per the third scenario predicted by the researchers, global coronavirus cases would then be up to 60 crore.

The MIT researchers noted that despite these elevated numbers, no country is close to establishing herd immunity against coronavirus. The researchers said While actual cases are far greater than official reports suggest, the majority of people remain susceptible. "Waiting for herd immunity is not a viable path out of the current pandemic,” they added.

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