Paris Climate Agreement goals to curb global warming are still achievable: Study

A new study conducted by the University of Colorado, Boulder has revealed that the Paris Climate Agreement goal to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, is still within reach. Moreover, the study also notes that recent data has suggested that apocalyptic, worst-case scenarios are no longer plausible. Roger Pielke Jr., lead author of the study said as per CU Boulder's report:

This is cautiously optimistic good news with respect to where the world is today, compared to where we thought we might be. The two-degree target from Paris remains within reach.

Climate forecast for the century

Published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, the study notes that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted warming between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius by 2100. The forecast says that warming would happen at a median of 2.2 degrees Celsius and is much better than 4 or 5 degrees Celsius of warming in worst-case scenarios by the same time.

This study observed different scenarios created by the climate research community to explore and plan for possible futures and how they would evolve under various factors including different climate policies and greenhouse gas emissions. For this study, Pielke Jr. and his team examined 1,311 climate scenarios and compared the scenarios to the projected 2005-2050 fossil fuel and industry carbon dioxide emissions growth rates. "These scenarios represent what futures are plausible if current trends continue and countries adopt the climate policies they have already announced to reduce carbon emissions", the CU Boulder said.

As mentioned above, the results revealed that the worst-case scenarios are less plausible and warming would be lower than previously projected owing to the lower levels of emissions. However, the experts noted that the plausibility of worst-case scenarios has lowered because they were created over a decade ago. "There's a need for these scenarios to be updated more frequently. Researchers may be using a 2005 scenario, but we need a 2022 perspective. You're going to have better policies if you have a more accurate understanding of the problem, whatever the political implications are for one side or the other", Pielke Jr. said. 

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