Bangladesh Elections Explained: Sheikh Hasina Eyes A Fifth Term Amid Intense Political Unrest

Dhaka - Amid ongoing political turmoil among different political factions, Bangladesh is all set to go to polls today, i.e. January 7. About 120 million voters are expected to choose from nearly 2,000 candidates for the 300 directly elected parliamentary seats. The general elections are crucial for Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina who will be seeking a fifth term in the office. However, the highly anticipated elections are also marred with controversies with the main opposition party - Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) vying to boycott the polls. If everything goes according to schedule the voting will begin at 8 am (local time) and end at 4 pm (local time). The counting will commence shortly after with initial results expected by early Monday. Things started to escalate in October last year when the BNP, took to the streets of Dhaka demanding the Bangladeshi premier appoint a neutral caretaker government to ensure free and fair elections. However, the demands were left neglected and deadly clashes broke out across the country. Not only this, several BNP leaders and their supporters were arrested which attracted attention from all around the world, especially the United States. As Bangladesh gears up for an intense election, here's all you need to know about the political dynamics that are in play.An election official walks past ballot boxes and election material laid out for distribution at an auditorium of a school in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Saturday, Jan. 6, 2024, Image: AP How Hasina's reign faced setbacksIt is important to note that Hasina has managed to hold on to the Prime Minister's post due to the economic success Bangladesh witnessed under her tenure. However, the deadly COVID-19 pandemic left this economic success in complete shambles. In the post-pandemic era, the country has been hit with rising inflation and an escalated cost of living. According to Time, the country also witnessed a doubling of foreign debt since 2016, while the foreign exchange reserves have been drastically dropping to $20 billion from $48 billion in August 2021.People join a rally by victims who said they suffered burn injuries during protests by the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party in October, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2024, Image: APAmid the chaos, several domestic and international civil bodies accused the country's regime of taking increasingly authoritarian measures to stifle dissent and curtail civil liberties through systematic arrests and disappearances of critics. “The weaponization of the judicial system to attack journalists, human rights defenders, and civil society leaders diminishes the independence of the judiciary and erodes fundamental human rights,” a group of UN special rapporteurs stated in November last year.One of the main opposition lives in exileWhile there are a plethora of opposition movements taking place at home, the main challenger to the Bangladeshi Prime Minister is actually residing 5,000 miles away in London. Tarique Rahman, the son of the Former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Khaleda Zia, is currently in exile with his wife and daughter since 2008. In August last year, a court in Dhaka sentenced Rahman to nine years in prison over corruption charges in a 2007 case. Hasina's critic went on to call the judgment “politically motivated”. Meanwhile, the BNP supremo Zia is currently under house arrest and is suffering from deteriorating health conditions. Hence, she is out of mainstream politics leaving Rehman as the acting party chairman. “The main challenge for the BNP is that the ruling party is controlling all the state machinery, whether it’s the law enforcement agencies or the judiciary,” Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the BNP’s Secretary-General, told Time. “So whenever we raise our voices, they oppress us, they arrest us, they make false claims and fake cases,” he added. However, it is important to note that the party has been accused of causing instability in the country and is known for having solid connections with China. Former Prime Minister of Bangladesh Khaleda Zia, Image: APHow do international actors have key stakes in the elections?In September last year, the US Department of State said that it would be taking steps to impose visa restrictions on Bangladeshi nationals who were found guilty of interfering in or "undermining" the upcoming democratic election process in the South Asian nation. “The Department of State is taking steps to impose visa restrictions on Bangladeshi individuals responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh. These individuals include members of law enforcement, the ruling party, and the political opposition. The United States is committed to supporting free and fair elections in Bangladesh that are carried out in a peaceful manner,” the American State Department said in a statement. “Persons found to have been responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh may also be found ineligible for U.S. visas under this policy in the future. This includes current and former Bangladeshi officials, members of the opposition and ruling political parties, and members of law enforcement, the judiciary, and security services,” the department furthered. Passenger train set ablaze in Bangladesh's Dhaka, Image: APShortly after the announcement, the Bangladesh government pushed back against Western censure. The country's Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen went on to compare the move to Western interventions in Iraq and elsewhere. “Look at Iraq, what did you do, in the name of false propaganda?” he told The Financial Times, insisting that West is trying to “create chaos”. Meanwhile, Hasina brushed off the censure and asked nationals not to worry. "There are other oceans and other continents in the world. We will make friends with those continents crossing the other oceans. Our economy will be stronger and more developed and vibrant," Hasina remarked according to reports by The Daily Star. How the Bangladesh elections matter to India? The Sheikh Hasina administration is known for having strong ties with India for years. Just hours before the commencement of the election process, Hasina called India a “trusted friend”. “We are very lucky...India is our trusted friend. During our liberation war, they supported us...After 1975, when we lost our whole family...they gave us shelter. So our best wishes to the people of India,” the Bangladeshi premier told ANI on Sunday. Both nations have been actively involved in trade and initiating development projects for decades. #WATCH | Dhaka: In her message to India, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina says, ''You are most welcome. We are very lucky...India is our trusted friend. During our liberation war, they supported us...After 1975, when we lost our whole family...they gave us shelter. So our… pic.twitter.com/3Z0NC5BVeD— ANI (@ANI) January 7, 2024 However, Dhaka's proximity to China has been a matter of concern for both India and the United States. It is a known fact that Beijing has been leveraging its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to secure influence in Bangladesh. Under the initiative, China is implementing 21 bridges and 27 power projects in Bangladesh and around 670 Chinese companies have already invested in the country. Hence, the results of the highly intense Bangladesh elections will be closely monitored by several international actors.

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Bangladesh Elections Explained: Sheikh Hasina Eyes A Fifth Term Amid Intense Political Unrest

Amid ongoing political turmoil among different political factions, Bangladesh is all set to go to polls today, i.e. January 7.

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