Azerbaijan Plane Crash: Was Flight J2-8243 Hit by a Russian Missile? Damage And Distress Call Spark Sabotage Theories

Azerbaijan Plane Crash: As the official investigation into the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash that left 38 people dead is underway, theories began circulating about the possible cause. Some people pointed to visible holes in the plane's tail section, suggesting that it might have been struck by Russian air defence systems responding to a Ukrainian drone attack. For the unversed, Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country's North Caucasus. Some Russian media claimed that another drone attack on Chechnya happened on Wednesday, although it wasn't officially confirmed.

Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defence system.” Speaking to Wall Street Journal,  Chief Intelligence Officer of aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions, Matt Borie said, "Video of the wreckage and the circumstances around the airspace security environment in southwest Russia indicates the possibility the aircraft was hit by some form of anti-aircraft fire."   

Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war. Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defence systems in Russia during the war. “This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.” 

Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defence assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”

Officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine it. 

‘Too Soon to Speculate On The Reasons Behind The Crash’

Meanwhile, speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course. “The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” he said.

Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board. According to Kazakh officials, the passengers aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs, and three Kyrgyzstan nationals.  

A Day of Mourning For Victims

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan observed a nationwide day of mourning for the victims of the air crash. National flags were lowered across Azerbaijan, traffic across the country stopped at noon, and signals were sounded from ships and trains as the country observed a nationwide moment of silence.

Azerbaijan Plane Crash

Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan's capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons yet unclear and crashed while making an attempt to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea.  

The plane went down about 3 kilometers (around 2 miles) from Aktau. Videos circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before smashing into the ground in a fireball. Other footage showed part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside in the grass.