EXPLAINED: Why is Serbia and Kosovo on brink of major conflict again and who's to blame?

The decades-old Serbia-Kosovo border tensions are on the verge of erupting again as fresh clashes took place in Kosovo’s north between authorities in Pristina and ethnic Serbians opposing new border rules. From unannounced raids to protests, the tensions between Belgrade and Pristina continue regularly, particularly because the Kosovo issue has been left unresolved since 1999. Without any formal authority over Kosovo, Serbia has not recognised Pristina’s sovereignty. Remarkably, Kosovo declared independence in February 2008 but Serbia considers the country as its own territory.

Why are Serbia and Kosovo on the brink of war again?

The conflict between Serbia and Kosovo remained frozen for two decades; however, this time there is a risk of friction escalating into a dangerous conflict. This is because the context of the tensions has changed drastically with regard to the European Union (EU) taking responsibility for the complex political situation in Balkan states. 

The ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo’s north do not recognise Pristina’s authority to impose rules and regulations. Recently, the demonstrators in the border region protested against Kosovo imposing new border rules, forcing Pristina to delay the implementation. 

While no casualties were reported in the clashes over the weekend, the routine conflicts between Serbia and Kosovo have previously led to multiple deaths and injuries. A range of individuals has been detained including UN personnel, Russians and other people. 

Experts in Russia, the country which has sided with Serbia in the conflict, believe that Kosovo solved the problem at the end of the 20th century in strict accordance with the dominant approach. According to an RT report, the region was developed in conditions where the “only future roadmap” for several states was eventual membership of the EU. 

However, the prospects of the bloc’s membership varied from relatively close or very distant. Notably, the EU’s management, which has changed due to circumstances, has not led to any desired outcome over the past quarter of a century in Kosovo. 

Kosovo has mainly ethnic Albanian territory that was formerly a province in Serbia. The deadlock over Kosovo’s independence has kept tensions between both sides simmering which is also preventing full stabilisation of the Balkan region following the deadly conflicts in the 1990s, which also witnessed NATO intervention. 

Why Serbia is not letting go of Kosovo?

Serbia upholds Kosovo as its own territory and the heart of its statehood and religion. It is to note that there are a number of medieval Serb Orthodox Christian monasteries in Kosovo, which is considered an independent state by about 100 nations except Russia, China, Serbia and a few European nations. Moreover, the nationalists in Serbia regard a 1389 battle against the Ottoman Turks in Kosovo as a testament to its national struggle. 

Who is living in Kosovo?

The population living in Kosovo are ethnic Albanians who are majorly Muslims. They consider Kosovo as their own country while accusing Serbia of occupation and repression. Back in 1998, these Albanians had launched an offensive against Serbia, prompting a harsh response from Belgrade which ultimately led to NATO’s intervention in 1999. The forces from the US-led defence alliance led Serbia to pull out of Kosovo and cede control to international peacekeepers. As of now, there are over 3,000 NATO peacekeeping forces in Kosovo. 

Despite the declaration of independence, the ethnic Serbs living in northern Kosovo have resisted any attempts by Pristina to impose more control on the Serb-dominated north. The main town in Kosovo’s north, Mitrovica is significantly divided between an ethnic Albanian part and a Serb-held part.

Has anybody tried to resolve the conflict?

The international community have constantly tried to find a common ground between the two former foes, Serbia and Kosovo. However, both sides have remained unsuccessful in penning down a comprehensive agreement assuring peace. The European Union (EU) has been able to introduce freedom of movement and multiethnic police. But no categoric breakthrough in peace talks implies that there would be prolonged instability, ethnic decline and repeated clashes. 

It is to note that any intervention by the Serbian military would mean a confrontation with NATO Peacekeepers. Serbia is unlikely to move in but Kosovo’s north is controlled by Belgrade. Moreover, Kosovo can not become a United Nations (UN) member or a functional state without resolving the dispute with Serbia. 

What is happening right now?

This week, Kosovo delayed the implementation of new border rules after police were reportedly forced to close two border crossings with Serbia on Sunday. Kosovo's Police claimed that they were forced to shut Bernjak and Jarinje border crossings after ethnic Serbians in the north shot at authorities and blocked roads while protesting against the new border rules proposed by Kosovo, prompting the UN to urge both sides to avoid escalation. 

These new rules, which were set to take effect on Monday before the unrest along the border, would have forced the people entering Kosovo with Serbian IDs instead to have a temporary document during their stay in Pristina. Remarkably, a similar rule regardings IDs is applied by Serbia for Kosovars. Kosovo’s government also said that ethnic Serbians who have registration plates issued by Serbia would have to change them for Kosovo within two months.

Fourteen years after Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, around 50,000 Serbs living in the north, close to the Kosovo border, still use license plates and papers issued by the Serbian government. 

Who’s to blame for the recent flare-up of tensions?

Early Monday, after delaying the implementation of new border rules, the Kosovo government also accused Serbia of trying to destabilise the country as ethnic Serbian in a dispute over vehicle license plates and identity cards. In a statement, the Kosovan government had said that many “aggressive acts”, including road blocking and shooting at authorities took place in the northern areas dominated by ethnic Serbs on Sunday.

Following tensions along the border on the weekend, Kosovo held consultations with the European Union (EU) and US ambassadors and announced that it would delay the plan to implement new rules for one month. The implementation of license plates and ID rules would now begin on September 1.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic noted that the situation with Kosovo, which witnessed fresh escalation over the weekend, had never been “more complex” for Serbia and ethnic Serbs and emphasised that Belgrade “will win” if attacked. Vucic said, “The atmosphere has been brought to a boil”. 

On the other hand, Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti accused the Serbian President of inciting the “unrest”. On Facebook, Kurti noted, “The following hours, days and weeks can be challenging and problematic”. The new rules, which became the root of fresh tensions between both sides, came almost a year after Kurti gave up imposing similar rules due to similar protests. With Serbia not recognising Kosovo’s independence, the tensions between both sides are now the highest in years. NATO occupied Kosovo in 1999 following a 78-day war with then Yugoslavia. Kosovo declared independence with support from the West. 

What has NATO said?

NATO, which maintains peace between both sides with 3,770 troops on the ground in Kosovo, said on Sunday that it was ready to intervene if “stability is jeopardised”. The alliance said that it would “take whatever measures are necessary to keep a safe and secure environment in Kosovo at all times” while also encouraging Pristina and Belgrade to continue talks. 

(Image: AP)