Xi sidestepping G20 forum in India comes in backdrop of map controversy; and more

Chinese Premier, Li Qiang, on Saturday, arrived at the Bharat Mandapam venue to attend the 18th G20 Summit here in New Delhi after President Xi Jinping sidestepped the forum. Xi abstained from participating in the meeting of the G20 format despite China's much-touted 'key global player' posture in a cutthroat competition with its geopolitical rival United States.

Why is Xi Jinping missing?

Xi's announcement sparked a slew of speculations that his absence, which is the first time ever at a high-profile G20 Summit since he assumed power in 2012, may be related to multiple Asia-Pacific countries boycotting Beijing's unilaterally redrawn map that distorted India's sovereign, territorial lines. Still, others believe that Chinese authoritarian leader Xi's move may be in subordination with his staunchest yet ally Russia's President Vladimir Putin who, in turn, announced his absence from the key summit.

Instead, Putin sent his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to New Delhi after speaking with Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the telephone, who, Lavrov said “expressed an understanding” for his decision not to attend the September 9-10 Summit. Putin, who has an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against him for the alleged war crimes in Ukraine, will be visiting China, nevertheless. In his argument, Russia's President says that in Beijing his security services can ‘completely guarantee’ his safety.

No leader gave a clear explanation about the reason for their rampant 'no-show' as India hosted the Group of 20 meetings that championed G20's expansion with the African Union's permanent membership to the format. 

Premier Li Qiang of China received by General Vijay Kumar Singh. Credit: Twitter/@g20org

The 'standard map' furore & littoral states' anger at China

Beijing, which shares a longstanding close relationship with Russia, has refused to condemn Putin's all-out war in Ukraine. On many occasions, China exercised its veto power at the United Nations Security Council to scuttle a draft resolution that sought to condemn Moscow's brutality in the eastern flank of Europe. 

But more visibly, China's woes with the G20 are related to the growing number of countries in the Asia-Pacific region pushing back more assertively against the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) expansionist agenda, its massive Belt and Road infrastructure initiative, and its military provocation—including near Taiwan Strait—a trojan horse for People's Liberation Army (PLA) to expand its military footprint and industrial outposts.

China has grown wary of the West-dominated partnerships of India like AUKUS and the QUAD. And more recently, its official 'standard map' caused a geopolitical frenzy ahead of India's G20 forum where US President Joe Biden had hoped to meet with his 'old friend.' Most of the G20 countries voiced their contention about Beijing's so-called 'official Standard Map Edition 2023' that depicted India's Aksai Chin plateau as part of Hotan County and the state of Arunachal Pradesh within the Chinese territory as part of Tibet. 

Russia's Foreign Miniter Sergey Lavrov at G20 Summit in India. Credit: Republic

Map also lays Chinese sovereign claims in the hotbed South China Sea that comprises of Natuna Islands claimed as its own by Indonesia. Lambasting China for its distorted map, Indonesia, a G20 member, insisted that China must release a new map marking its territorial lines that are "strictly in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea 1982 (UNCLOS 1982)." 

China sparked a furore among the neighbouring countries by depicting Malaysian waters and some of the regions that fall under the sovereign control of Indonesia as its own. Apart from projecting India's Aksai China plateau in the Western Himalayas as Chinese territory, the map also renamed at least 11 places in the Arunachal Pradesh state that it shows fall in “Zangnan” or southern Tibet in Chinese.

The littoral states in the disputed South China Sea, most of whom are attending the G20 Summit in India, protest China's so-called nine-dashed line in the maritime region that consists of 12 per cent of the world’s total fish and felicitates approximately one-third of all global maritime trade. But in its brand new map published ahead of the G20, Beijing included the 10th dash as its sovereign ‘International Border.' This included the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of other coastal states such as the Philippines.

US, Japanese and Philippine coast guard ships staged law enforcement drills in waters near the disputed South China Sea. Credit: AP

'China's version' of its sovereign territories forms a gigantic U shape that includes the entire South China Sea, Taiwan, EEZ Philippines near Sabah and Sarawak, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, and Indonesia. G20 members, United States, Russia, Indonesia, and others berated Beijing and cornered it for its redrawing of map shenanigan. 

Russia's Ambassador to India Denis Alipov reminded the PRC that the change of map would most likely not lead to a change in "situations on the ground". In a clear-cut message, Moscow said that under no circumstances would it disparage its historic ties with New Delhi. It is to be understood that Chinese fishing trawlers and boats regularly traverse the contested South China Sea to exploit natural resources off their shores, like fish or natural gas, sparking anger among the island nations of Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia.

Jakarta, attending the G20 Summit in India, lodged a protest against the Chinese claim outlined in the new map published by its Ministry of Natural Resources of China. As scores of countries hounded 'the dragon' trading barbs and heated arguments over where its sovereign borders end, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin appealed for a 'calm.' 

"We hope that the relevant parties can remain objective and calm, and refrain from interpreting this problem excessively," Wenbin said. 

China, just days later, announced that Xi would be skipping the crucial summit of the world's top 20 economies as tensions simmered with host country India, neighbouring smaller nations part of G20, the United States and others. While China's Xi appeared at the forefront of the BRICS format, the G20 in India failed Beijing's vision of affirming its global clout and exercising regional influence as an emerging superpower that could outcompete the United States. India, however, clarified that China's absence will have no effect on the consensus communique, or Leaders' Declaration downplaying geopolitical friction existing between the two nuclear-armed Asian giants. 

Permanent members of the G20. Credit: MEA

Thawing a geopolitical shard: US-backed transit corridor via India connecting Europe, Asia & Middle East

At the G20 Summit, the US, India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will work to finalize a joint infrastructure deal that could be announced in New Delhi and will threaten Beijing's economic clout, according to officials familiar with the development. The infrastructure initiative is "something that we’ve invested effort into with our partners," White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters at Air Force One while accompanying Biden. 

"Connectivity from India across the Middle East to Europe is incredibly important and would bring a significant number of economic benefits, as well as strategic benefits, to all of the countries involved,” Sullivan said. 

The ambitious infrastructure project will involve links of multiple ship transit between India and Saudi Arabia, a railway network between Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Jordan, ship transit to Turkey and onward trains and undersea cables. “This is nothing less than historic. It will be the most direct connection to date between India, the Arabian Gulf and Europe,” according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Trade between India and the EU is expected to be 40% faster. “It is a green and digital bridge across continents and civilisations,” Ursula von der Leyen added. 

While some speculate that Beijing-India ties turned frosty ahead of the G20 meeting of the world's top economies over a border dispute resulting in military clashes three years ago in which 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers died, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said that Beijing's disappearance from G20 forum has nothing to do with 'tense ties'.