At COP28 countries weighed to ditch fossil fuels, but where do they stand post climate talks?

At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s 28th Conference of the Parties [COP28] hosted in Dubai, the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell urged the countries to strengthen the political momentum to address the worsening climate change crisis.

Stiell made an impassioned plea to negotiators to reach the 1.5 threshold, and to limit the global warming well below 2C by the end of the century—a target that was established in the Paris Agreement in 2015 and was ratified by 195 countries to tackle the climate emergency.

COP28 members agreed to operationalisation of fund to compensate the vulnerable and developing nations to cope with the devastating loss and damages caused by the impeding climate disasters. “All governments and negotiators must use this momentum to deliver ambitious outcomes,” Stiell urged at the climate summit.

The critical funding, a longstanding demand of the developing nations on frontline of climate change impact, will help deliver climate justice by covering the costs associated with the devastation caused by global warming, extreme weather drought, floods, and rising seas in developing part of the world. The developed nations, majorly the largest contributors of the pollution, negotiated the fund at COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.

 The United Arab Emirates (UAE) committed to $100 million to the fund, Germany pledged a contribution of $100 million to the fund, United States, the United Kingdom and Japan pledged $17.5 million, $50 million, and $10 million each. The European Union [EU] member states have together promised $125 million in contribution to climate cause.

Despite a string of breakthroughs, including at the Net Zero Nuclear Summit on the sidelines where 22 countries pledged to triple nuclear energy capacity globally by 2050, the question of phasing out the fossil fuels lingered.

Sultan Al Jaber of UAE, the president of COP 28, argued that the total phase-out of coal, oil and gas would take the world "back into caves.” Even as the world’s eight billion population looked forward for a bolder climate action to be delivered in Dubai, Al Jaber maintained that there is “no science” that indicated that a phase-out of fossil fuels was mandatory to restrict global heating to 1.5C. Climate action needs a paradigm shift, and Al-Jaber’s posture at COP28 was one that was viewed by the scientists as “verging on climate denial.”

Addressing the opening plenary, Sultan al-Jaber, the President of the COP28 said: “We feel, as you feel, the urgency of the work, and we see, as you see, that the world has reached a crossroads. The science has spoken. It has confirmed that the moment is now to find a new road, wide enough for all of us. That new road starts with a decision on the global stocktake.” 

Consensus on phasing out fossil fuel: Outcomes, dilemmas and deliverables by countries

Here's the climate actions countries are taking as they struggle to ‘phase out’ fossil fuel:

Germany: “The whole COP has been a conflict of interest,” Isabel Rutkowski from Germany, European Youth Forum was quoted ass saying  “It’s frustrating because the science is pretty clear, and you have a president for COP who is not following science. It’s crazy,” she added. Germany heavily relies on the fossil fuel and Russia’s war in Ukraine has put into question country’s exorbitant fossil fuel dependence.

"We're not talking about turning the tap off overnight," German Climate Envoy Jennifer Morgan said. “What you're seeing here is a real battle about what energy system of the future we are going to build together.”

• In 2020, Germany imported the 57.5 percent fossil fuels energy—oil, gas and coal consumption—that was significantly high at 63.7 percent. 
• Germany, particularly, is focused on the energy transition progresses and is chasing the climate neutrality by 2045. 
• While the European Union, in its entirety, aims to achieve the neutrality by 2050, Berlin also plans to reduce its interim greenhouse gas emission targets for the years until 2040 in accordance with its Climate Action Law. 
• This implies that the fossil oil and gas are being phased out with alternative to renewable fuel.

United States: While United States committed to phasing out the fossil oil and gas, John Kerry, US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, during a press conference on Day 7 of the UNFCCC COP-28 Climate Conference at Expo City Dubai on December 6, said that “science was clear on the need to phase out some fossil fuel.” He reiterated, that “we are not going to be able to make the goal of being net zero by 2050 or have a shot at keeping temperatures below 1.5°C.” 

Today at #COP28, we discussed the successes of the Forest Climate Leaders Partnership after its first year. 

We look forward to accelerating action to end forest loss and deliver on the ambition of the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use. pic.twitter.com/DsHBfU9T7o

— Special Presidential Envoy John Kerry (@ClimateEnvoy) December 8, 2023

As the draft negotiating text on formal fossil fuel phase out stirred debate among the 200 countries, the US agreed with the United Nation’s proposed "orderly and not just phase-out of fossil fuels.”

We can no longer view climate change as a burden. 

It is an opportunity.#ClimateAction #COP28 pic.twitter.com/IAZg18sX0e

— COP28 UAE (@COP28_UAE) December 8, 2023

• US acknowledged that “largely” ending use of fossil fuels such as the burning of coal, gas and oil was definitely required to limit average global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. 
• Keryy said that US is sousing on deploying the technology that is no low-carbon or zero-carbon alternatives, for storing carbon emissions such as the steel and cement manufacturing. 
• US has agreed to accelerating investment in wind, solar and other renewables. “We will get to a global low-carbon, no-carbon economy,” Kerry said. “The only question is, Will we get there in time to avoid the worst consequences of this crisis?”

Marshall islands: Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner, the climate envoy of the country agreed that while we hope for a world where the world fulfils the promise of the Paris Agreement to contain climate change, “as an extremely climate vulnerable country we [Marshall Islands] need to be realistic and honest about the difficult path ahead.” In a major move, Marshall Islands unveiled the national plan to adapt to rising sea levels, and recognised the impacts of global warming that it acknowledged was “already hitting its shores.”

Brazil: Jean Paul Prates, CEO of Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras affirmed the fossil fuel phase out, saying "We are big guys and we can do big things. We can deliver results and we will have to report them very soon.” "The energy transition will only be valid if it's a fair transition," he added.

Saudi Arabia: UAE’s oil priding states have been opposed to efforts to reduce fossil fuels gradually, particularly the phase out of the “coal.” While establishing no specific timeline, Saudi Arabia settled to “phase-down” of coal-fired plants, which was objected to by Russia, China and India. But world's major oil and gas-producing countries do not have a fixed set plan to halt the drilling for fuels, Net Zero Tracker, an independent data consortium including Oxford University, says.

Mexico: The Mexican delegation is supporting “phase-down” of fossil fuels, but is facing own challenges in “phasing out.” “Mexico is a highly vulnerable country and we’re facing that as our own fight,” Benjamín Murguía, a technical advisor to Mexican negotiators told American broadcasters. Pointing at destruction caused by Hurricane Otis that tore through the country’s coastal cities, Murguía stressed, Mexico is “trying to rebuild Acapulco now.”

Philippines: Philippines, that represents the G77 developing nations, is on global warming frontline. It is the fastest-growing developing countries that is witnessing exacerbated climate change crisis including rising sea levels, changing weather patterns, typhoons and deadly heat and humidity. Fossil fuels, that accounts for 78% of power generation, dominates the country’s energy system. 

Philippines announced that it will phase out coal-fired power by 2035, and “almost entirely" phase out gas-fired generation by 2040. The draft Philippines Energy Plan 2023-2050, highlighted by Climate Analystics Org, shows a significant growth in renewables, but a substantially lower share in 2050 to meet the near-100% renewables in accordance to the Paris Agreement-compatible emissions.

Electricity generation from the 1.5oC compatible scenario and as planned under current policy projection based on draft Philippine Energy Plan 2023.

New Zealand: New Zealand plans to reverse its ban on offshore oil and gas exploration for which it was awarded the ‘Fossil of the Day’ title at COP28 in Dubai this week. “Did New Zealand not read the road signs to Cop28??? No U-turns on the way to a healthy planet,” the Climate Action Network International, that conferred the award to the country, asserted. This plan of restarting the fossil fuel exploration is being widely slammed by the neighbouring Palau and Vanuatu.

• Previously, the nations awarded the Fossil of the Day award also dishonoured their commitments, argues country’s climate change minister Simon Watts. 
• Just days ago, New Zealand opted for futuristic electric aircrafts to deliver mails as part of a project to transition to a low emission travel. 
• The firm BETA's ALIA battery-powered plane for commercial flights are planned for 2026, but has started operating the transporting cargo with an aim to cutting carbon emissions.
• The Qantas committed to using 10 per cent sustainable aviation fuel in its fleet by 2030, while both Qantas and Virgin will reach net-zero emissions by 2050, Air New Zealand told AAP.
• Basically, cutting emissions from air transport "a wicked problem,” Chief executive Greg Foran was quoted as saying.