Israeli Intelligence Believes Iran Could Attack Israel Within Days

New intelligence from the Israeli community indicates that Iran may be gearing up for a direct attack on Israel within the coming days, following the recent assassination of Hamas' political leader in Tehran. This information is based on two sources with direct knowledge of the situation, as per a report from Axios. This updated assessment, reflects a significant shift in the Israeli intelligence community’s understanding of Iran’s intentions.

The timing of this potential attack is critical, as it could disrupt the planned Gaza hostage and ceasefire negotiations set for Thursday. Israeli officials have described these talks as a "now-or-never" opportunity for reaching a deal with Hamas. However, one source reportedly noted that the situation remains "still fluid."

Until last week, Israel believed Iran hadn't finalized the timing 

Just last week, Israeli intelligence believed that Iran had not yet finalized the timing or nature of its response to the assassination. At that time, international pressure and internal debates were thought to be factors that might delay or limit Iran's retaliation. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was reportedly considering postponing or restraining the response.

Despite this, Iran’s mission to the UN issued a statement on Friday, saying, "we hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire."

Israel believes Iran is planning a large-scale attack 

On Sunday, Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant communicated with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, expressing concerns that Iranian military preparations suggest a large-scale attack may be imminent. A source with knowledge of the conversation reportedly confirmed these preparations.

Israeli intelligence continues to believe, that at first, Hezbollah will launch an initial retaliatory strike following the assassination of its top military commander in Beirut. Iran could then follow with a direct attack of its own. According to Israeli intelligence, these attacks are expected to be larger in scale than the one conducted by Iran last April, potentially involving missiles and drones targeting military installations in central Israel, including areas near civilian population centers.

Gallant hinted at this possibility during a visit to an Israel Defense Forces unit on Sunday, stating that Iran and Hezbollah "are threatening to harm us in a way they haven't done in the past." He added, "I hope that they will rethink and not lead to the outbreak of war on additional fronts. We do not want this, but we must be prepared."