As Lukashenko warns Poland of Wagner attack, imminent NATO threat hangs from Belarus

Russia's President Vladimir Putin's steadfast ally, Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko, on Sunday, warned neighbouring Poland that the Kremlin-backed shadowy paramilitary group Wagner's mercenaries want to unfold an all-out attack on Minsk's neighbouring territory—Poland. Lukashenko told his ally, Russia's President Putin during a meeting, that the Wagnerites, who arrived in Belarus this week to train the Belarusian Special Forces, were "stressing him out" because they want to attack Poland and Rzeszow, a south-eastern city that has transformed into a major aid hub for Ukraine's war.

Located just 45 miles from Ukraine’s border, Rzeszow Airport has become the main gateway for the heavy inflow of Western weaponry and military aid for Ukraine's military. Since the inception of the war, the Rzeszów-Jasionka airport, once hidden from the world, has been widely used to transport injured Ukrainian soldiers to hospitals in Europe. Its runway is lined with American MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. It is this western logistics hub for Ukraine where the Polish military, last month, detained at least 12 foreigners from unspecified eastern European countries whom they accused of spying for Russia.

Rzeszow has turned into a main target for Russian intelligence services to gather intelligence. Its airport, for the first time, was depicted on the map by the United States earlier last year shortly before Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, deployed US Army's 82nd Airborne Division paratroopers to bolster eastern flank's defences. 

Elite US troops from 82nd Airborne Division and military equipment seen landing at Rzeszów-Jasionka airport. Credit: AP

US Army's transport plane landing at Rzeszów-Jasionka airport in southeastern Poland. Credit: AP

'They ask to go to the West: Let us!'

Self-proclaimed President of Belarus, on Sunday, threatened a Polish offensive from Belarus. Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) fighters are "stressing him out," he said, because they want to invade the neighbouring Warsaw. "Maybe we shouldn’t have said it, but I’ll say that the Wagnerites began to 'strain' us. They ask to go to the west: 'Let us!' I say: 'Why do you need to go west there?' Well, to quiet one ... We control what is happening..'Well, we’ll go on an excursion to Warsaw and Rzeszow,'" Lukashenko said.

The latter asserted that the Zheshuv [Rzeszow] is unacceptable for them [Wagner mercenaries]. "When they [Wagner] fought near Artemovsk or Bakhmut, they know where Ukraine's military equipment came from. They have this inside: Zheshuv is a disaster," Lukashenko explained. Their mood is very bad, the Belarusian leader said of Putin's de facto private army known for violence, harassment and intimidation, systemic and grave human rights abuses including arbitrary detention, torture, disappearances and summary execution in Syria, Central African Republic, and the Middle East. 

"Of course, I keep them [Wagner mercenaries] in the centre of Belarus, as agreed. I would not want to relocate them there. Because their mood is bad. And, to be fair, they know what is happening around the Union State [of Russia and Belarus]," Lukashenko said. 

In response to the arrival of Wagner troops in neighbouring Belarus, Poland mobilised a large number of Polish soldiers from the country's west to the east "due to possible threats related to the presence of the Wagner," Mariusz Błaszczak, Minister of National Defence of Poland said in a statement. Zbigniew Hoffmann, secretary of the Polish Security Committee, labelled the joint exercises of the Belarusian Army and the Wagner mercenaries as "undoubtedly a provocation." "That is why Mariusz Błaszczak, the Minister of National Defence and head of the committee, decided to move our military units from the west to the east of Poland," Hoffmann said, according to his statement given to the Polish news agencies. Polish assault units are training on the border to "deter a potential aggressor," secretary of the Polish Security Committee iterated. 

Special Forces soldiers who form the Polish contingent. Credit: Ministry of National Defense/ Poland

As Wagner trained with the Belarusian Army, the Polish Ministry of Defense told reporters that it "strengthened the cooperation of the army with the border guards through, among other things, an intensification of joint operations at the border".

Russia in favourable position to target NATO asset: The Suwałki Gap

Tensions between Belarus and Poland escalated to an all-time high last month after former Russian army officer, Andrey Kartapolov, said during a televised interview on Russian state television that the relocation of the Wagner mercenaries to Belarus postures Russia "in a favourable position to target NATO assets near Poland and Lithuania." 

Kartapolov warned that Wagner fighters can attack the border region of Poland and Lithuania "within a short span of a matter of hours" from their newly revived defense base in Osipovichi, a town 230 kilometres (142 miles) north of the Ukrainian border.

The ex-Russian Army officer said that they would capture the land strip of vital military significance for Russia located between Poland and Lithuania--the Suwalki Corridor also known as the Suwałki Gap. Located between Belarus and Russia's Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, the Suwalki Corridor is the only chokepoint that links the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia Estonia with other NATO states, and capturing this land strip can establish a land link to Kaliningrad, the main base of Russian Baltic Fleet. 

Russian Colonel General Kartapolov asserted that "it is clear that Wagner went to Belarus to train the Belarusian armed forces, but there's also such a place as the Suwalki Corridor. Should anything happen, we need this Suwalki Corridor very much… a strike force [based in Wagner forces in Belarus] is ready to take this corridor in a matter of hours."

NATO's Achilles heel, the Suwalki Gap, is a crucial and militarily sensitive 60-100 kilometres stretch which, if attacked, could trigger NATO to invoke Article 5 of the alliance's collective defence dragging NATO member states into direct confrontation with Russia. In 2020, Belarus and Russia conducted a mock invasion of Lithuania during the Zapad Military Exercises.