As Turkey heads to presidential elections, Syrian refugees become major campaign theme

As Turkey heads to the parliamentary and presidential elections on May 14, deporting nearly six million refugees from Syria who now call the Turkish state "home" has become the major campaign theme for the presidential candidates including incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan who clutched political power in 2014.

Just weeks before elections that will mark a paradigm shift in the security of the Middle East and Europe, decide Turkey's standing in the NATO defence alliance, policies in the Mediterranean and posture in the Ukraine war, candidates from more than six main opposition parties vouching to overrun Erdogan's 20-year long presidency, are promising to deport hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. This, they say, includes even those given the 'protected status.'

Çok seviyoruz Denizli… ❤️🇹🇷 pic.twitter.com/E7onV8Cp5d

— Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (@RTErdogan) April 19, 2023

Erdogan's AK Party scrambles to grip onto 20-year long rule

Turkey hosts the largest population of Syrian asylum seekers who fled conflict and violence in one of the gravest refugee crises that began in March 2011 as a result of a violent government crackdown. Of the total 4 million refugee population that Turkey welcomed during the influx 10 years ago, approximately 3.6 million are Syrians. As Turkey prepares for the historic elections that will see President Erdogan's Justice and Development Party [AK] ruling party attempting to keep his 20-year rule, more than 200,000 Syrians in Turkey that were given citizenship upon arrival fear deportation.

Adana, a city in southern Turkey and the site for the Saricam tent camp, alone hosts around 22,000 Syrian asylum seekers.

Turkish opposition candidates, including the right-wing nationalist Ata Alliance, Sinan Ogan, pledged to send the Syrians back during an impassioned election campaign speech he made in the Bagcilar district of the Turkish Capital, Istanbul. His brother, a textile worker, was shot dead by a Syrian. Exempting the Turkish pro-Kurdish Green-Left Alliance, all major alliances are pledging to dismiss an estimated 4 million Syrians back to neighbouring Syria should they win the presidential seat. 

Credit: Twitter/@RTErdogan

"I promise you we will send the Syrians back as soon as possible. We won't allow another Turk to be murdered by a Syrian," angry Ogan was quoted as saying by the German state broadcaster Deutsche Welle. 

Syrian refugees & election security concerns

While the migration issue is at the heart of Turkey's May vote, Deputy Chair Onursal Adıguzel of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) also reportedly underscored “concerns of our [Turkish] citizens about election security" as he diverted attention to the fact that nearly 150,000 voters in Turkey were born in Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, and Iran. These citizens, whom Adıguzel termed as not Turkish citizens, would also be voting “for the first time." Turkey-based reports note that the minister lambasted the “uncontrolled entry [of the immigrants] into our country [Turkey] which was a result of [Erdogan's ruling party AK's] open door policy on Turkish borders.” Notably, rumours were also rife in Turkish-based media about the possible election fraud linked to Syrian refugees voting.

Credit: Twitter/@RTErdogan

Turkey is being slammed by the six opposition parties for becoming an authoritarian in its political set-up with the 69 years old Erdogan's 2-decade of rule. His ruling AK party, which has been in power since November 2003, has received widespread backlash this year and is feared might lose popular public support due to soaring inflation and the response to the deadly twin earthquakes that left 50,000 people dead.

Sınırın sıfır noktasında, verdiğim taahhütleri milletimize hatırlatmak istiyorum. https://t.co/lmO7j1CVUy

— Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (@kilicdarogluk) March 14, 2023

Erdogan's stiff race with Oppostion's 'Turkish Gandhi'

Erdogan is facing stiff competition from opposition-aligned Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the Republican People's Party (CHP), also dubbed as "Turkish Gandhi." The latter, in his election bid, promised to unlodge the EU accession talks that hit deadlock since 2018, press freedom, unorthodox taxation and liberalization reforms, and release of two jailed convicts from Peoples’ Democratic Party—Selahattin Demirtas and human rights defender Osman Kavala— linked to Erdogan's crackdown on those involved in the failed 2016 Turkish coup.

Kilicdaroglu is promising to revise the 2016 agreement with the EU on migration. Kilicdaroglu, in an address, vowed to send all Syrians back to their country if he wins and becomes Turkey's president in May. After he visited the Turkish-Syrian border, he tweeted: "I've reached the Zero Point of the border. I have come to tell my nation that I remain determined on an issue. My presidency has two important goals: The first is to bring the Syrians back to their homeland," he said.