Climate crisis could displace 1.2 billion people by 2050 warns new IEP report

According to the latest study, more than 1 billion people will face being displaced within 30 years due to the climate crisis and rapid population growth drive. This will further lead to an increase in migration with large impacts on both the developing and developed countries, the study revealed. 

The study conducted by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)- a think tank that generates annual global terrorism and peace indexes, asserted that 1.2 billion people lived in 31 countries that are not adequately resilient to resist ecological threats.

19 countries facing highest number of threats

IEP’s first ecological threat register found that 19 countries are facing the highest number of threats, including water and food shortages and greater exposure to natural disasters. These countries are also among the world’s 40 least peaceful countries.

According to the report the countries most at risk from ecological threats, include; Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Angola, and Uganda. These countries are also predicted to experience a notable population increase, further driving mass displacements, the report recorded.

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huge social and political impacts

Steve Killelea, the institute’s founder, said this will have huge social and political impacts, not just in the developing world, but also in the developed, as mass displacement will lead to larger refugee flows to the most developed countries. Ecological threats pose serious challenges to global peace, he added. Lack of access to food and water will only increase without urgent global cooperation in the next 30 years and in the absence of action riots, civil unrest, and conflict will most likely increase, Killelea said.

The study found that 141 countries would face at least one ecological threat by 2050, with sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and North Africa the regions facing the largest number of ecological threats. The study used the United Nations and other data to assess over 157 countries’ exposure to eight ecological threats.

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India and China most threatened by water scarcity

According to the analysis countries like India and China, are most threatened by water scarcity, while others such as Pakistan, Iran, Kenya, Mozambique and Madagascar face a combination of threats and a growing incapacity to deal with them. The study further stated that the largest number of people at risk of mass migration are from Pakistan followed by  Ethiopia and Iran. It added that in such countries even small ecological threats and natural disasters could result in mass population displacement.

Meanwhile, in the wealthier or more developed regions in Europe and North America people will face fewer ecological threats and would be better able to cope with them however most will not be immune from wider impacts'.  The report stated that 16 countries like Sweden, Ireland, Norway, and Iceland, faced no threat.

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