Concerns rise as Russia, US and China expand activities at nuclear test sites: Report

In an exclusive report, CNN has obtained satellite images that reveal a notable surge in activity at nuclear test sites in Russia, the United States, and China. These developments come at a time when global tensions between the three major nuclear powers have reached their highest point in decades.

Recent satellite imagery, spanning the past three to five years, shows significant expansions and infrastructure upgrades at three key nuclear test sites. China operates one in the remote Xinjiang region, Russia maintains one in the Arctic Ocean archipelago, and the United States has a facility in the Nevada desert.

Jeffrey Lewis, an adjunct professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, spoke to CNN stating, "There are really a lot of hints that we're seeing that suggest Russia, China, and the United States might resume nuclear testing," marking a potential breach of the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Retired US Air Force Col. Cedric Leighton concurred, emphasising that these nations have invested heavily in both modernising their nuclear arsenals and preparing for potential tests.

Increased nuclear activity in Russia, China & US

Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement in February that he would order a test if the US moved first has drawn attention to Moscow's intentions. Putin's comments were further fueled by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's bellicose rhetoric, hinting at the potential use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Satellite images reveal that the Russian nuclear test site in Novaya Zemlya has seen extensive construction from 2021 to 2023, suggesting potential preparations for nuclear testing. China's Lop Nur test site has displayed increased activity, including the excavation of a fifth underground tunnel and new construction projects. The United States has expanded its U1a complex in the Nevada National Security Site.

The expansion of nuclear testing infrastructure at a time of profound mistrust between the United States, Russia, and China has alarmed analysts. While immediate armed conflict is not imminent, Jeffrey Lewis told CNN that the arms race between these nations could escalate, leading to exorbitant expenditures without improved security.

All major nuclear powers, including the United States, Russia, and China, have been modernising their nuclear arsenals. Recent developments include Russia's operationalisation of the "Satan II" intercontinental ballistic missile and the US's development of new delivery systems.

China's potential return to nuclear testing is driven by the need for more up-to-date data for computer models. China has conducted fewer tests compared to the US and Russia, resulting in limited data points. Additionally, the lack of low-yield nuclear tests hampers the development of specific weapons systems.

Doomsday clock nears midnight

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists set its iconic Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight earlier this year, citing Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a primary cause for concern. The threat of nuclear escalation remains a significant danger, with the world facing the highest risk of annihilation since the height of the Cold War.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has renewed calls for key countries to ratify the international treaty banning nuclear experiments, both for peaceful and military purposes. Guterres highlights the alarming rise in global mistrust, coupled with the proliferation of nuclear weapons, as a recipe for catastrophe.

Experts agree that the resumption of nuclear testing by any major power could trigger an escalation of tests, heightening global instability. The International Monitoring System remains vigilant for any major underground blasts that could be detected.