Russia-Ukraine conflict: Is Moscow prepared to invade Kyiv as tensions soar on border?

Russia’s well-planned armed aggression against Ukraine in 2014 resulted in Moscow’s annexation of a part of the Ukrainian territory — The crimean peninsula and certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which the Russian Ministry of Defence affirms was an attempt at an “unconstitutional coup in Ukraine”. The political takeover of the autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol was the Kremlin’s first military operation aimed at undermining independence and sovereignty of Ukraine, argues Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, as tensions once again stoked on the volatile Russia-Ukrainian border with more than 90,000 Russian federation troops stationed that the US intelligence report claimed was intended at waging hybrid warfare for invasion of the Kyiv. 

Accusing a pro-Russian oligarch in Ukraine of joining Russia’s coup d'etat plans for overthrowing him the coming week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made claims that Rinat Akhmetov raised “billions of dollars” to invest into the operation with the Russian government. This has put NATO and the United States on high alert as hostilities between the two longstanding arch-rivals intensified.

“Russia is not going to attack anyone,” Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, told reporters, according to Associated Press' translation of his remarks. “It’s not like that.”

Credit: AP

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, reminded the world, that Putin "stealthily" provided the military support to separatists in Georgia’s breakaway South Ossetia region in 2008, and also de facto controlled South Ossetia for several years drafting operating procedures for Georgian rebel factions’ armed forces. 

Tactical training with a subdivision of the Black Sea Fleet Marine Brigade. Credit: mil.ru

Russian troops board landing vessels after drills in Crimea. Credit: AP

“Joint political and diplomatic efforts of the international community constitute a crucial element in countering Russian military aggression,” Ukraine has argued, as it sought NATO and its ally United States support in countering Russian forces that have concentrated with heavy military capabilities like tanks, artillery, armoured units, drones, and electronic warfare systems on the border with its former Soviet neighbour.

There is, although, 'no certainty' about the intentions of Russia, warned NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, and the US secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. “We are not quite sure what [Putin] is up to," Austin had said during a conference as he hosted his Ukrainian counterpart President Volodymyr Zelensky last week. 

'Malicious American propaganda' to reignite conflict: Moscow 

While the Russian foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin earlier yesterday dismissed the Ukrainian infiltration agenda, stressing that Kremlin “has no plans of Ukraine invasion” and labelling the United States’ intel report as “malicious American propaganda” with an aim to “reignite the conflict in eastern Ukraine,” the danger of unusual movements of Russian military forces near the Ukrainian border cannot be undermined, as the geopolitical experts suggested.

Ukrainian soldier takes his position near frontline with Russia-backed separatists in Shyrokyne, eastern Ukraine. Credit: AP

Russian military vehicles loaded into a plane for airborne drills during maneuvers in Crimea Credit: AP

Russia remains “deeply concerned about provocative actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the line of contact” as well as “preparations for a possible military solution to the Donbas problem" Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russian President said, as per AP.

US Army Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had spoken with his Russian counterpart, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, "to ensure risk reduction and operational deconfliction," Pentagon said in a statement. In compliance to policy, they do not release specific details of their calls.

Russian military build-up on contentious Moscow-Kyiv border. Credit: Maxar 

Kremlin 'armed and ready' to attack Ukraine 

Russia is “armed and ready” to invade Ukraine from multiple locations, including Belarus with a heavy buildup of troops and artillery concentration along the border, US intelligence warned. Ukrainian Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told the Defense-specific news outlet Military Times that with more than 92,000 troops Moscow will launch an offensive on Kyiv by the end of January or early February via airstrikes, artillery, and armor attacks, a claim that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dubbed as “artificial hysteria” in a state television speech, accusing US and NATO of holding joint military exercises in the Black sea. 

Earlier last year, when Moscow similarly mobilised military troops on the Ukrainian border United States had cancelled its planned deployment of two warships in the Black Sea, the Turkish officials had informed Anadolu, adding that passage of the first warship through the Bosphorous did not occur and Ankara was not given formal information of any possible rescheduling. 

Foreign vessels are required to give a 15-day prior notice to Turkey ahead of the deployment of warships through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles strait under the terms of the 1936 Montreux Convention. At the time, the cancellation happened just a day after Putin and US President Joe Biden held a telephonic dialogue and reached mutual terms. It is not understood what has changed. 

Credit: AP

Russia dismissed imminent invasion narrative and coup reports even as Kyiv outlines evidence of Russia's backing of the separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine, accusing Putin of 14,000 casualties from the 2014 annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. Russia, in turn, launched a scathing attack on US and NATO for “bringing their military first.” 

“The ones who are accusing us of some kind of unusual military activity on ‘our own territory’ are themselves sending their armed forces from across the ocean. I mean the United States of America. It’s not very logical and not very decent,” Peskov said, condemning such military operations as ‘provocations’ that will trigger a reaction from Kremlin. 

US Sixth Fleet (SIXTHFLT), a naval striking group entered the Black Sea with the control ship USS Mount Whitney to hold maritime exercises with NATO-allied forces, despite a Russian ban on foreign warships’ movement in several parts of the Black sea.

"This is, of course, an open attempt to test the Russian reaction, to increase tensions in the Black Sea region," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said after the US patrol boats left the Russian territorial waters.

Dismissing those concerns, the NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg threatened Russia of “repercussions” and the “price it will pay if it uses force against Ukraine” as Moscow’s warships displayed combat readiness in routine training exercises in the Black sea. 

While a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine was agreed upon in July 2020, the military provocations stepped up after at least four Ukrainian soldiers were killed on March 26, 2020, in military shelling on the combat area of Zolote-4 in Luhansk Oblast, close to the cross-frontline entry point near the settlement of Shumy, north of the separatist stronghold of Donetsk. The skirmishes at the Russian Ukrainian border, since then, continued with heavy troop concentration in the war zone of Donbas.

Ukrainian soldiers tell on-ground reporters that Russian soldiers provoked armed clashes and sniper attacks violating the ceasefire, targeting positions of Ukrainian armed forces with  82-mm mortars, automatic grenade launchers, and large-caliber machine guns prohibited by the Minsk agreements.