UN body says world tourism won't recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2024

The worldwide tourism arrivals are not likely to return to the pre-pandemic levels until at least 2024, said UN's World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) while stressing that 2021 was another challenging year amid COVID-19 pandemic and emergence of new variants. According to a UNWTO report, in comparison to 2020, global tourism witnessed 4% jump in 2021. However, as per the initial UNWTO figures, foreign tourist arrivals were still 72% lower than in the pre-pandemic year of 2019.   

Further, most tourism professionals expect greater possibilities of tourism recovery for 2022, according to the current UNWTO Panel of Experts. While 58% predict a comeback in 2022, primarily during the third quarter, 42% predict a recovery only in 2023. Yet, international arrivals are only expected to recover to 2019 levels in 2024 or later, according to a majority of experts which comprise 64%, as per the UNWTO report. 

According to the first edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer for 2022, improving COVID-19 vaccination coverage, along with fewer travel restrictions leading to better cross-border cooperation and regulations, have all ‘helped release pent-up demand’. In addition to this, international arrivals were down by 62% in both the third and fourth quarters of 2021, compared to pre-pandemic levels, while alone December witnessed a 65% fall.  

Pace of recovery remained slow

Due to differing degrees of movement limitations, vaccination rates, and traveler confidence, the rate of recovery remains slow and unequal around the globe. Europe with 19% up and the Americas with 17% rise, had the best outcomes in 2021 relative to 2020, but they were still 63% behind pre-pandemic levels in both cases. Entries in the Middle East, on the other hand, fell by 24% in 2021, whereas in the Asia-Pacific area, they were 65% lower and 94% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, arrivals in Africa increased by 12% in 2021 compared to 2020, however, it is still 74% lower than in 2019.

As some nations impose travel bans and limitations for selected areas, the current spike in COVID-19 cases and the Omicron is projected to undermine the recovery and harm confidence into early 2022. At the same time, vaccine coverage is inconsistent, and several destinations, particularly in Asia and the Pacific, still have their borders blocked. International arrivals are expected to increase by 30 to 78 percent this year compared to 2021, although staying well below 2019 levels. 

Moreover, tourism's contribution to the economy in 2021 is anticipated to be US$1.9 trillion, up from US$1.6 trillion in 2020 but still significantly under the pre-pandemic level of US$ 3.5 trillion. 

(Image: PTI/ Pixabay)