Published 20:57 IST, September 19th 2019
US-Russia nuclear war would kill 34 mn and injure 57 mn people: Study
There might be a US-Russia nuclear war which would kill 34 mn and injure 57 mn people according to a study. Analysts, on the other hand, dismiss the speculation
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A study at Princeton‘s Science and Global Security program (SGS), suggests 34 million people would be killed and 57 million injured in the first hours of an all-out nuclear conflagration between US and Russia if a conventional conflict went too far. Such a scenario is very likely to arise as for the last two years the countries have dropped support for arms-control measures, said the researchers. In 2019, Vladimir Putin signed a bill suspending Russia’s role in a key nuclear pact with the US, after Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the treaty. The 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty banned the production, testing, and deployment of land-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 310 to 3,410 miles in the US and Russia.
Visual presentation
The researchers depicted the simulation through an animation in which electronic trails of ballistic missiles arc across the screen, before blossoming into a carpet of white discs. It showed a presumed situation in which the war would lead to the nuclear incineration of Europe brought about by the escalation of a conventional war between Russia and Nato. With more imaginary and closely calculated numbers of missiles fired by both sides, the simulation went on showing the details of the US-Nato-Russia war. Russia’s red streaks lift away from the ground moments before America’s rain of blue obliterates swathes of the country; then, Moscow’s bombs crash into the US from coast to coast. Later, Washington and Moscow would both target population centers, with up to 10 missiles per city from their remaining submarine arsenals in the mind-boggling imaginary video. The first simulated nuclear blast appears to occur just inside Poland, near Wroclaw and the borders with Germany and the Czech Republic in the graphics.
The researchers claim that the video is based on real force postures, targets, and fatality estimates. This scenario was developed on the basis of a conventional US/Nato-Russia conflict, with Russia launching a ‘de-escalatory’ nuclear weapon strike in accordance with its current policy, they said to a US Publication.
Analysis of the video
Speaking on the presumptions, Sam Dudin, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said that the mutually-assured destruction scenario envisaged by SGS would be unlikely to take place because US policy since 1950 has been to avoid direct conventional war with Russia. He added that even Moscow does not want a war with Nato. He said that the simulation is faulty in many ways since it has not included integrated air defense systems. These systems would have a major impact on nuclear strikes launched from aircraft and reduce the casualty. There are more missing points like France which is also a big nuclear power. Moreover, the US sees Nato as something separate, unlike the UK. The US Department of Defence and Russia’s UK embassy have been contacted for comment.
20:00 IST, September 19th 2019