World population expected to shrink for the first time in next several decades

For the first time in centuries, the world's population is expected to decline during the next several decades. The world's population is currently around 7.8 billion people, but analysts believe that number will peak in 2064 before declining. According to a landmark study published in The Lancet, the Earth's population will peak at around 9.7 billion and then decline to 8.8 billion by 2100.

The study discovered that the population of specific countries such as Italy, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, Thailand, and Japan could decrease by up to 50%. Stein Emil Vollset, the study's lead author and Professor of Global Health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), told IFLScience that the last time the global population decreased was in the mid 14th century, due to the Black Plague.

According to IFLScience, he further added, "If our forecast is correct, it will be the first time population decline is driven by fertility decline, as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine. There are two key factors: improvements in access to modern contraception and the education of girls and women."

According to him, these factors influence the fertility rate (the average number of children delivered by a woman throughout her lifetime), which is the most important determinant of population. He remarked that the worldwide total fertility rate is expected to fall progressively from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100, significantly below the minimal rate (2.1 live births per woman) considered necessary to maintain population numbers.

World Population expected to shrink to 8.79 billion in 2100

According to the estimate, the global population would peak at roughly 9.7 billion in 2064 and then fall to 8.79 billion in 2100. Due to low birth rates and ageing populations, up to 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Portugal, South Korea, and others, might see their populations fall by more than 50%. Even China, the world's most populated country, would see its population decline from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100.

While highlighting the overall trend of diminishing population, the study predicts that population numbers would climb in several places of the world. This comprises North Africa, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa, where the population is expected to treble over the next century, rising from 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100.

(With inputs from agencies)