Can Russia use 'tactical' nuclear weapons on Ukraine? What is Putin aiming at?

On February 24, Russia's President Vladimir Putin ordered an unforeseen military operation in Ukraine, accusing the erstwhile Soviet state of threatening the safety and security of the Russian Federation. Parallelly, he also accused the Volodymyr Zelenskyy administration of clandestinely building a plutonium-based dirty bomb. It has been seven weeks since then and now, is a complete opposite narrative, Zelenskyy has warned the world against a potential Russian nuclear attack. 

How likely is it for Putin to press the nuclear button?

At present, Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal with almost 6,257 weapons. Appearing in a CNN interview on Friday, Zelenskyy said that the world must be prepared to see Russia using tactical or low-grade nuclear weapons as, it fails to annex major cities. Zelenskyy’s remarks came days after Putin warned the west of “dire consequences” in case they directly intervene in Ukraine. It was reported that the KGB spy turned politician Putin has put his Nuclear Forces on alert, indirectly signaling his readiness to press the nuclear button. 

However, the threat of nuclear war is less likely given the fact that no nation wants the mass destruction of its population. Despite repeated calls by Zelenskyy, the west has still not agreed on imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine due to fear that, it may give Putin a reason to fire nukes. 

Is there a possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

As the war continues to escalate, military experts have said that the real threat is not from “strategic” weapons that could annihilate the whole planet but from “tactical weapons” that could localize the destruction to prominent Ukrainian cities. A move to deploy the latter kind of weapon could be aimed at breaking Ukrainian resistance, which has till now deterred Russian troops from capturing any major Ukrainian city. 

Pavel Luzin, an expert at the Russia-focused think-tank Riddle, opined that the first step would see a tactical weapon used over the sea or an uninhabited area, as an act of intimidation. "After that, if the adversary still wants to fight, it may be used against the adversary directly," he said.  

As Russia continues to reiterate its wide allegations that Kyiv is developing chemical or biological weapons, the threat of Putin using it as a defence for launching nukes has become imminent. "The use of a weapon of mass destruction against Russia would be a doctrinal justification for responding with a nuclear weapon," said Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, an expert on Russia's nuclear doctrine at the University of Oslo.

What does Putin want?

“Putin needs a victory. At least he needs something to present to his constituency at home as a victory", Andrei Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council said when asked about the Russian Czar’s ambition. The 69-year-old started the war by telling his people that Ukraine threatened the safety and security of the Russian Federation. He labeled the subsequent offensive as 'Special Military Operation', refusing to call it an invasion or a war , and also made doing so a criminal offense. 

But, as days passed, it became clear that Putin aimed to overrun Ukraine and depose the Zelenskyy administration. However, after a month of military blitz gained no success, he redirected his ambition to the apparent ‘liberation of eastern Donbas region.’ With Putin set to face Presidential polls in less than two years, the ongoing invasion of Ukraine holds the power to change the course of his political career. 

(Image: AP)