Humanitarian aid to Ukraine, military drill with US: Armenia has ruffled Russia's feathers

Recent developments in Armenia's foreign relations have captured Moscow's attention as the former Soviet republic broadens its International ties, a move that has prompted concern from Russia. The arrival of US soldiers for a peacekeeper training exercise in Armenia and the nation's growing interactions with Western countries have raised questions about Russia's influence in the region.

A 10-day "Eagle Partner" exercise, which kicked off on Monday, involves 85 US and 175 Armenian soldiers and aims to prepare Armenia for participation in international peacekeeping missions. While relatively small in scale, this exercise represents a series of what Russia's Foreign Ministry has termed "unfriendly actions" by a traditional ally.

Armenia also announced humanitarian aid to Ukraine for the first time in early September this year.

Armenia's frustration & security concerns

Armenia's shifting foreign policy trajectory has been spurred by its dissatisfaction with Russia's perceived inability or unwillingness to defend it against what Armenia views as aggression from neighbouring Azerbaijan. This growing frustration questions Russia's capacity to maintain its influence over countries and conflicts throughout the former Soviet empire.

Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan articulated his concerns when he spoke to Italian newspaper La Repubblica earlier this month, stating, "Armenia's security architecture 99.99% was linked to Russia. But today we see that Russia itself requires weapons... Even if it wishes so, the Russian Federation cannot meet Armenia's needs."

Tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh expose vulnerability

Tensions have escalated between Armenia and Azerbaijan, primarily centred around Nagorno-Karabakh, a region internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but inhabited mainly by ethnic Armenians. The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in the fall of 2020 underscored Armenia's military vulnerability. Azerbaijan, equipped with drones and F-16 fighter jets provided by Turkey, secured a significant victory, leading to territorial changes.

Russia's role in ending the conflict

Russia facilitated a ceasefire, deploying around 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh to guard the Lachin corridor, which connects the region to Armenia. However, these peacekeepers have not prevented Azerbaijani troops from establishing a military checkpoint along the corridor, obstructing the import of food to the enclave.

Armenia's reliance on Russia's security commitments through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) has waned as Moscow has seemingly failed to fulfil its obligations. Some experts attribute Russia's inability to uphold the ceasefire terms to its involvement in the Ukraine conflict.

ICC membership and joint exercises worsen relations

Armenia's steps toward becoming a party to the International Criminal Court's Rome Statute have further strained relations. The Rome Statute would give Armenia a platform to voice human rights concerns against Azerbaijan. Simultaneously, Armenia's joint military exercises with the US have exacerbated tensions, prompting Russia to summon the Armenian ambassador to Moscow for challenging discussions.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expressed his concerns, stating that such exercises do not "help strengthen an atmosphere of mutual trust in the region."

Armenia faces a precarious situation, caught between Russia and the West, and risks alienating both. The nation's leaders are keenly aware of the challenges ahead, fearing potential Russian reprisals that could have economic repercussions, given Russia's significant control over sections of Armenia's economy.

As Armenia continues to navigate it's evolving foreign relations, it remains to be seen whether its quest for new international partnerships is solely driven by security concerns or part of a broader pivot toward the West.