Putin wants a new ‘grand bargain’ with the West as Russian losses mount up, says Turkey

Ibrahim Kalin, the adviser of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to strike “a new grand bargain” with the West to rub out the humiliations of the post-Cold War period. This statement comes after Erdogan on Friday spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the "latest developments" in the war in Ukraine, as per a readout from the government of Turkey.

In an interview with CNN, Kalin asserted that the Ukraine conflict will inevitably end in a negotiated settlement, with the only question being when, “and how much damage will have been done by then?”

"The question is: When we will come back to it and how much damage will have been done by then?” Kalin stated during the interview.  

Ankara, while critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Putin's recent move to annex four Ukrainian territories, has maintained good relations with the Kremlin. This was signified by the Black Sea Grain Initiative which was brokered by Turkey and the UN this summer to allow grain shipments from Ukrainian ports.  

Ukraine’s decree declaring the impossibility of negotiations  

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine came to a halt after Moscow announced the accession of four Ukrainian regions into the Russian Federation last week. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy hit back by signing a decree declaring the impossibility of holding negotiations.  

Published on the Ukrainian Presidency’s website, the decree declared "the impossibility of holding negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin." Moreover, the decree was dated September 30, the day on which Putin announced the accession of four partially-occupied regions of Ukraine into Russia.   

Erdogan’s spokesperson informed that the halt in talks was to be expected, further revealing that he had recently discussed the issue with Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor of the United States. Furthermore, Kalin stated that there was also a larger point at play when Russia’s involvement in negotiations came into focus.  

"Our understanding is that Mr Putin wants to have a new grand bargain, a new deal with the West. It's partly about Ukraine, no doubt. But the larger issue is really a new deal between Russia and the Western world,” revealed Kalin.  

Elaborating further with the context of the agreements made by Moscow at the end of the Cold War, under ex-Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Mikhail Gorbachev, Kalin stated that such agreements no longer reflect the Russia of today. According to Kalin, "There is a new Russia, there is a new world, there is a new reality, and they want to have a new bargain.”  

The Turkish spokesperson further blamed Russia for testing the entire globe’s liberal order.