Russia-Ukraine crisis: What are Minsk agreements? Are 'they the only path to peace'?

Amid warnings that Russia could invade Ukraine within days, the global agenda has been dominated by the crisis prevailing in eastern Europe. But, in the middle of it all, Moscow, Kyiv, the US and its allies have repeatedly mentioned the Minsk agreements, which are named over the capital of Belarus where they were signed back in 2014 and 2015. As the US has stated that Russia has positioned more than 130,000, of its forces outside Ukraine, Minsk agreements are deemed as an attempt to secure a ceasefire between the Ukrainian government and Russia-backed separatists in the east of Ukraine.

Even French President Emmanuel Macron has indicated the Minsk agreement between Kyiv and Moscow as the blueprint that would calm the Ukraine crisis. After Macron spoke with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelinsky respectively, the French President had said that the Minsk II agreement is the “only path on which peace can be built”. But both Russian and Ukrainian sides have disagreed over their interpretations of the Minsk agreements. 

What are Minsk agreements?

The first Minsk Protocol was signed by Ukraine, Russia, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the Russia-backed separatist leaders in September 2014. Ukraine and the separatists had agreed to an immediate 12-point ceasefire deal, including the withdrawal of heavy weapons and prisoner exchanges. However, the Minsk I agreement had failed to stop actual conflict as frequent violations by Ukraine and Russia were witnessed. 

Just five months after the first Minsk protocol was signed, Ukraine lost a part of its territory to  Russia-backed separatists. Following this, Minsk II was signed in February 2015 which was a 13-point agreement signed by Russia, Ukraine, mediated by France and Germany. However, the second agreement also rapidly broke down. OSCE had reported around 200 weekly violations between 2016 and 2020 and over 1,000 since 2021, stated Novaya Gazeta. 

What are the main points of the Minsk agreements?

One of the most notable points of the Minsk agreements includes a ceasefire by OSCE and the holding of local elections in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics on their future status in Ukraine. Out of the 13 points in Minsk II, nine of them refer to the management of the actual conflict in the occupied territory such as a ceasefire, withdrawal of massive weapons along with an amnesty for the ones involved in the fighting. 

It also included an exchange of hostages and detainees between both sides along with the pull out of “all foreign armed formations, military equipment and also mercenaries" from Ukraine. It would cover what Ukrainian officials have said that Russian private and regular military personnel, stated Sky News. 

Even though a ceasefire is presently in place, it was violated on most days with shots being fired by both the separatists and the Ukrainian forces based on what is known as the line of contact that divides them. Apart from those nine points of the Minsk agreements, the other four points refer to politics. The Minsk agreement has included a dialogue on local elections and a temporary law to give a special status to Luhansk and Donetsk. It also stated the re-establishment of “full-control” over the Ukraine-Russia border by the Ukrainian government. 

Where does Russia & Ukraine disagree?

Even though Minsk II had laid down points for both military and political resolution of the tensions, their steps remain unimplemented. The major sticking point has been Russia insisting that since it is not a party to the conflict, it is not bound by the terms of the agreement. Basically, Russia and Ukraine have differences in the interpretation of the pact that further led to the “Minsk conundrum”, according to some observers.

Ukraine views the 2015 Minsk agreement as a tool that would help the country re-establish control over the separatist-ruled territories. Kyiv seeks a ceasefire, control of the Russia-Ukraine border, holding elections in Donbas and a limited devolution of power to the separatists, in the same order, stated media reports. 

But, on the contrary, Russia sees the deal as a way to oblige Ukraine so that Kyiv would grant the rebel authorities in Donbas comprehensive autonomy and representation in the central government. This would effectively hand over the power to Russia to veto Ukraine’s foreign policy choices. Only then, Moscow would hand over the Russia-Ukraine border to Kyiv’s control. 

How Minsk agreements can help in resolving crises?

The emergence of Minsk II in the negotiations happening now to resolve the crisis is because the February 2015 deal provides a vehicle for direct talks between Ukraine and Russia. Also known as the Normandy Format talks, these negotiations include Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany. With France being one of the mediators of the talks, French President Emmanuel Macron has the opportunity to be a peacemaker on the world stage with re-election just around the corner at home. 

According to reports, Moscow might view Minsk II as a way to guarantee its central security demand, which is that Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO. But, the United States, NATO and other allies and partners have rejected and demanded and have upheld Ukraine’s right to join the alliance on its own wish. Meanwhile, for the former Soviet union member, Ukraine, the Minsk deal could provide a window to take back control of its border with Russia which would effectively end the threat of Moscow attacking Kyiv, at least for now.

Ukraine has categorically denied allowing Russia to have a de facto veto on Ukrainian foreign policy decisions. Several people in Ukraine, according to reports, see abiding by Minsk II as a concession to Russia’s military aggression. Separately, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on 17 February is set to hold a discussion next week to implement the peace deal. 

(Image: AP)