Russia won’t make major gains in Ukraine in 2023, claims US intelligence chief Haines

"Russia’s military is unable to sustain its current level of fighting in Ukraine and probably will not capture significantly more territory this year," claimed US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines on Wednesday, March 8. Notably, the Senate Intelligence Committee held a hearing on worldwide threats with the heads of US security agencies on Wednesday.

US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines further stated that after major setbacks and large battlefield losses, we do not foresee the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains. 

'Putin most likely calculates that time works in his favour'

According to top US Intelligence officials, more than a year after Putin first sent troops into Ukraine, the Russian President is beginning to accept his military’s shortcomings and adapt his strategies in hopes of eventually toppling Kyiv. However, Haines further said that Putin most likely calculates that time works in his favour. 

Notably, various estimates by the US and its allies contend about 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or are missing as a result of the now yearlong war in Ukraine. And the US National Security Council said last month that even Russia’s preeminent paramilitary force, the Wagner Group has been hit hard with about 30,000 casualties including 9,000 deaths.

Haines further mentioned that one year after invading Ukraine but failing in his primary goals for the operation, Putin now probably has a better understanding of the limitations of his forces. US Director of National Intelligence notes that Moscow's military power is now significantly constrained by troop losses and arms depletion that is exacerbated by trade restrictions and sanctions placed by the United States and allies. 

Further, issuing a warning, Haines said, "If Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization, and identify substantial third-party ammunition supplies, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain even the current level of offensive operations and as a result, Russian forces may fully shift to holding and defending the territories they now occupy."