Russia struggling to develop new weapons for War, but Moscow's old arsenal enough: Report

The Russian military is facing a decline due to battlefield losses and sanctions imposed by Western nations, a new independent analysis says. However, the report indicates that Moscow still possesses enough military might to prolong the conflict in Ukraine.

The analysis highlights that the Russian military has lost nearly 10,000 units of critical equipment, including tanks, trucks, artillery pieces, and aerial drones. Nonetheless, the report suggests that Russia can rely on its stocks of Cold War-era and older equipment located at the front lines to compensate for any technological losses with sheer numbers.

“The quality of the Russian military in terms of advanced equipment will likely decline, at least over the near term,” the April 14 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report says.

The report highlights the significant losses suffered by the Russian military in terms of modern main battle tanks. It estimates that Moscow lost between 1,845 to 3,511 tanks within the first year of the war. The report specifically highlights the losses of the newer and upgraded T-72B3 main battle tank, which was first introduced in 2013, as particularly detrimental.

As of this week, Oryx, an open-source intelligence website based in the Netherlands, claims to have visual evidence of over 500 variations of T-72B3 tanks that have been destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured.

During a Tuesday briefing, Western officials also acknowledged the strain on the Russian tank fleet, noting that Russian armor is regressing in terms of equipment, with T-55 tanks that were introduced in 1948 appearing on the battlefield.

The CSIS report emphasises the challenge Russia faces in constructing new tanks, citing Russian media reports. According to the report, UralVagonZavod, a single-tank plant, can produce approximately 20 tanks per month. However, Russia loses nearly 150 tanks of all kinds in Ukraine each month on average.

Additionally, there is a shortage of modern hardware. The report claims that Moscow must revive its decades-old tanks since it lacks the resources to construct new ones, and Western sanctions have prevented it from obtaining the necessary parts and tools to build a contemporary tank.

Western sanctions result in less reliable suppliers: Report

According to the CSIS report, sanctions have restricted Russia's access to essential components like optical systems, which are necessary for tank gunners to identify targets, as well as ball bearings and machine tools.

The report points out that before the war, Russia relied on French imports for optical systems, but since those imports have been cut off, it has had to use older and less advanced gunner's sights in even its most modern tanks, resulting in a potential range loss of up to two kilometers.

The report also notes that 55% of Russia's pre-war supply of high-quality ball bearings came from Europe and North America, which is critical to manufacturing any moving vehicle. With those sources no longer available, Russia may attempt to fill the gap with domestically produced supplies or lower-quality imports from China or Malaysia.

In any case, Russia will not be able to obtain the same level of quality as before the war.

“Moscow is under pressure to adapt, often turning to less-reliable and costlier suppliers and supply routes, lower-quality imports, or trying to reproduce Western components internally. This is likely hampering the rate and quality of Russian defense production,” the report said.

The CSIS report highlights that the impact of Western sanctions is not limited to tanks. The report notes that modern, high-tech components, including microchips, are required for manned and unmanned aircraft, missiles, and electronic warfare equipment, which Russia is unable to source adequately from its internal suppliers and faces difficulty importing due to the Western sanctions.

Russia still outnumbers NATO-backed Ukraine: Report

The CSIS report cautions that Ukraine and its Western allies should not expect these supply problems to bring an immediate end to hostilities. While Russia may face challenges in sourcing modern components for its military, it still possesses a significant arsenal and is capable of continuing its military operations.

“Sanctions and export controls are not a silver bullet that will force Russia to bring the war to an end,” it says. Highlighting the large inventories Russia has in reserve, the report says, “Russia’s military capabilities still greatly outnumber those of Ukraine on most indicators, including man-, air-, land, and naval power."

“While an accurate count of Moscow’s current military stocks is not available publicly, it has been roughly estimated that, as of February 2023, the total number of aircraft at the Kremlin’s disposal has been 13-15 times more than Kyiv’s. Russia has nearly 7-8 times more tanks and 4 times more armored fighting vehicles, while its naval fleet is 12-16 times larger than Ukraine’s,” it says.

According to the report, Russia's numerical advantage will allow it to engage in a war of attrition over the next year, using its numbers to overwhelm Ukraine's military until it runs out of hardware, even if it suffers fewer losses.

To counter this, it is crucial that Western countries continue to provide Ukraine with technologically superior armaments to offset Russia's numerical advantage, even if they are inferior to Russian weapons. For example, the report notes that Russia's older tanks are vulnerable to hand-held Javelin missiles.

“This is the crux of this war in its second year: the Russian military can rely on its mass and continue feeding older or less than state-of-the-art technology as long as it thinks it can simply outlast the Western deliveries of weapons and systems to Ukraine,” the CSIS report says.

Therefore, the analysis suggests that the conflict may continue for some time, even in the face of these supply problems.