Turkey's Erdogan faces biggest test in his two-decade rule at upcoming election

Despite being a strong contender, Turkey's authoritarian President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is currently confronted with the most significant challenge in his 20-year reign.

According to opinion polls, Erdogan's AKP party and his nationalist allies MHP are expected to win around 45% of the votes in the upcoming parliamentary election, which is nearly equal to the combined percentage of the opposition bloc consisting of six parties. However, in the simultaneous presidential elections scheduled for May 14, the opposition's joint candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is often referred to as Turkey's Gandhi, is leading by approximately 10 percentage points over Erdogan.

The upcoming elections in Turkey are expected to have a significant impact on the country's economy and foreign policy. The current economic situation is a result of President Erdogan's unorthodox policy of low-interest rates that caused inflation to soar and the value of the Turkish lira to drop. The elections will also determine whether the executive presidency will be dismantled and whether Erdogan's recent efforts to mend relations with countries like Saudi Arabia, Israel, the UAE, Egypt, and Greece are sincere.

There are several candidates running for the post of Turkish President, including Kilicdaroglu, Ince, and Organ. Ince was the CHP candidate in the 2018 election and is expected to take away some of Kilicdaroglu's votes. Polls suggest that neither the ruling People's Alliance nor the opposition Nation's Alliance will achieve a clear victory, and the pro-Kurdish HDP's votes may be crucial.

The imprisoned former leader of HDP, Selahattin Demirtas, has been critical of Erdogan's one-man rule and has stated that "Erdogan is a black page that is definitely closed for Kurds." The HDP is currently facing a closure case before the Constitutional Court due to its alleged ties to the outlawed PKK, and if convicted, it will be banned. The HDP has decided not to nominate its own candidate for the Presidency, which could benefit Kilicdaroglu, who has not been hostile to the Kurds.

However, there are concerns about the fairness of the elections, given Erdogan's undemocratic rule and control over state institutions and the media. The OSCE has refused to recognise Turkish elections as free and fair since 2015. Erdogan has also used the justice system to prevent popular opposition candidates like Ekrem Imamoglu from participating in elections. The devastating earthquakes in February have further eroded Erdogan's popularity, but it remains to be seen whether he will allow the elections to be free and fair.

Who is Kemal Kilicdaroglu? 

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a 74-year-old politician nicknamed 'Turkey's Gandhi' because of his gentle demeanour and physical resemblance to Mahatma Gandhi, the iconic leader of India's nationalist movement and advocate of non-violence, has been selected by six opposition parties as their joint candidate to contest against President Erdogan in the upcoming elections. Latest polls indicate that the race for both the presidency and parliament will be closely contested.

He is a staunch proponent of democratic secularism which positions itself in stark opposition to the Islamist politics of Erdogan.  Kilicdaroglu holds a degree in economics and finance and has previously served as an advisor to the Ministry of Treasury and as the director of social security. In 1994, he was recognised as "Bureaucrat of the Year" by a financial magazine.

Local media reports describe Kilicdaroglu as a reserved intellectual. His mannerisms have earned him several nicknames such as 'Gandhi Kemal', 'Turkey's Gandhi' and 'the quiet force'.