Published 13:44 IST, September 30th 2020
US elections 2020: A look at key swing states as Biden gains on Trump nationally
With US election fast approaching, and with voters already casting ballots, new national polls and swing states surveys are being released almost every day.
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With US Presidential election fast approaching, and with voters in many states already casting ballots, new national polls and swing states surveys are being released almost every day. Many polls in the recent weeks were conducted wholly or partially before Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death, so it still remains to be seen how Trump’s push to fill her seat with Amy Coney Barrett will affect the race.
What are swing states?
The key for either party to win, however, still depends on specific battleground states. There have been several swing states, that over recent elections have gone both ways. These states hold the key to winning the presidential election.
As per reports, this year North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona could all play an important role in the election's outcome. The aforementioned states are the ones which Trump won narrowly against Hillary Clinton in 2016. In a bid to win the re-election, it is crucial for Trump to retain these states.
On the other hand, according to several surveys, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the national polls. However, it still doesn't guarantee Biden’s victory. The presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which go to the state’s victory regardless of the margin of victory, a handful swing states will probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners.
Biden ahead of Trump in swing states
If Biden were to win every state along with the seven battleground states in which he is currently leading Trump, he would walk away with at least a 347 electoral votes and a win requires only 270 electoral votes. According to RealClearPolitics poll average, Biden is currently tied with Trump in Iowa, lagging by one per cent point in Georgia, which is a state Democrats haven’t carried since the 1992 general election.
For Trump to win the upcoming election, he would likely need to win at least five of the states in which Biden currently leads, including Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio. If the Republican leader wins, he can likely afford to lose battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, where Biden is currently leading.
According to reports, like Hilary Clinton four years ago, Biden, however, hasn’t topped 50 per cent in most battleground state poll averages. He is over 50 per cent only in Maine, Minnesota and Wisconsin. This means that there are enough undecided or third-party party voters in most battleground states to potentially swing those states to Trump. Currently, Biden, however, is ahead of Trump nationally.
13:45 IST, September 30th 2020