Published 13:10 IST, October 24th 2020
COVID-19: US likely to report more than half a million deaths by February, says study
Scientists estimated that over half a million people could die of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) disease by 2021 but masks could control that fatality figure.
Due to a critical surge in infections in winters, scientists have predicted that the death toll of 224,000 will spike by an alarming 511,000 by February 28 in the US in what they call 'third peak', however, masks could control that fatality figure by 130,000, just over 4 months ahead. In a study published in Nature Medicine journal, scientists at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, renowned for drafting a well-established trajectory model for the novel coronavirus estimated that over half a million people could die of the SARS-CoV-2 respiratory disease by 2021.
However, scientists said in the research that there are some alternative scenarios to the more probable situation where states are expected to respond to an impending health crisis by reinstating some SDMs [mandate easing]. While there is enough evidence that the use of face masks or protective coverings can cut the viral load inhalation and can considerably reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, more lives can be saved. ”We are heading into a very substantial fall/winter surge," said IHME director Chris Murray, one of the researchers.
Scientists found that approximately one-third of these deaths projected from 22 September 2020 to 28 February 2021 would occur just three states: California (146,501 (84,828–221,194) deaths), Florida (66,943 (40,826–96,282) deaths) and Pennsylvania (62,352 (30,318–93,164) deaths). Meanwhile, the highest cumulative death rates, per 100,000 were estimated to occur in Rhode Island by 28 February 2021 post winters.
“By the US national election on 3 November 2020, a total of five states are predicted to exceed a threshold of daily deaths of 8 deaths per million,” scientists estimated.
In as many as 40 states, the R would be >1, implying the rate of transmission would be a high pandemic on a crucial threshold. If the 'effective reproduction number’ which is a key factor in gauging the coronavirus pandemic remains below 1, it was further predicted.
Pandemic could rip population
According to the World Economic Forum, “R figure that is even slightly over 1 can lead quickly to a large number of cases thanks to exponential growth.” UK government at the time of the first peak had explained in a briefing that R more than 1 implied 100 people infect 150, who would in turn infect 225, who would infect 338. This is a situation that would make the pandemic uncontrollable for the government, stringing the healthcare systems. “In three rounds of infection, the number of people with the virus would have more than quadrupled to 438,” WEF explained. This would be the reason the coronavirus pandemic could rip the global population with no previous immunity so quickly, and severely impacting the vulnerable.
"Under all scenarios evaluated here, the United States is likely to face a continued public health challenge from the COVID-19 pandemic through 28 February 2021 and beyond, with populous states in particular potentially facing high levels of illness, deaths, and ICU demands as a result of the disease,” scientists in the study warned.
Further, they suggested the mandatory use of masks in winters to stay safe from the contagion. The study comes as countries worldwide enter the challenging winters with Europe now witnessing the rising trajectories from the second wave of a pandemic that prompted Ireland to impose lockdown. meanwhile, US President Donald Trump at the second and final presidential debate repeated his claim that the US was "rounding the corner” of the pandemic in unsubstantiated claims.
Updated 13:09 IST, October 24th 2020