US intelligence agencies failed to predict Afghanistan's rapid fall to Taliban: Report

Four different US intelligence agencies, which offered nearly two dozen assessments of Afghanistan’s situation, failed to predict imminent fall of Kabul to the Taliban, reported The Wall Street Journal, citing classified materials it obtained. While the analysis produced by the agencies hinted towards the Taliban gaining ground in the war-ravaged nation against then Afghan government, they did not think it would happen as swiftly as the situation unravelled in August. 

The documents obtained by the media outlet included those from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and the State Department's Intelligence Bureau. It was reported that even though all agencies agreed that the internationally-recognised government of former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani was unlikely to survive without America’s aid, they stated varying longevity of the same. 

US President Joe Biden’s announcement of ending America’s two-decade-old presence in Afghanistan and withdrawing US troops was followed by several intelligence reports. A CIA report titled, “Government at Risk of Collapse Following U.S. Withdrawal"  focussed on how the Ghani-led government would topple by the end of the year if American soldiers leave the South Asian country. That report, as per WSJ, was followed by another CIA document titled, “Afghanistan: Assessing Prospects for a Complete Taliban Takeover Within Two Years.”

Additionally, the DIA said in a report in June that the Taliban would push their strategy of isolating the rural areas from Kabul for another year. The summaries stated by the media outlet even gave an insight into some of the recommendations that were received by both Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump while figuring out the US troop withdrawal process in a safe manner. 

Biden overruled top cabinet officials on US troop withdrawal 

WSJ report followed the publication of the book ‘Peril’ by Washington Post’s Bob Woodward and Robert Costa which stated that Biden overruled US secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin’s advice of slowing down American troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Since Biden ramped up US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and prompted the Taliban to reconquer the South Asian country after 20 years, he has repeatedly claimed that all his decisions were taken after the advice of his cabinet. However, in ‘Peril’ authors claimed otherwise.  

(IMAGE: AP)