Kennedy's Exit will Boost Harris' Campaign, says 'Nostradamus' of US Polls

Allan Lichtman, renowned for his accurate predictions of U.S. presidential elections, has shared his insight on how Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s departure from the 2024 race could benefit Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Lichtman, known as the "Nostradamus" of U.S. elections, has successfully predicted nine out of the last ten presidential contests, including Ronald Reagan's re-election during an economic recession and Bill Clinton's victory over George H.W. Bush.

Lichtman thinks Kennedy's endorsement of Trump will help Harris 

In a recent YouTube livestream, Lichtman explained that Kennedy’s exit and subsequent endorsement of former President Donald Trump would actually support Harris's campaign. According to Lichtman’s election prediction system, Kennedy’s endorsement “has nothing to do with the keys - (it) doesn't turn a key one way or the other.” Lichtman was referring to his “13 keys to the White House,” a method that has revolutionized election forecasting.

Newsweek reported that Lichtman mentioned he has not yet definitively assessed the "third party" key but suggested that Kennedy's chances of rebounding are slim. “It certainly doesn't look like (Kennedy) is going to rebound,” Lichtman said.

Advantage Harris?

Earlier this month, Lichtman expressed a preference for Kamala Harris over her Republican opponent, Donald Trump. He told News Nation that “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose,” noting that the Democrats currently hold six of the 13 keys required for a successful presidential campaign. Lichtman pointed out that factors like a strong economy, policy changes, and the absence of major controversies are in Harris's favor.

However, Lichtman also noted that Democrats lost three keys with the transition to Harris, including the "incumbency" and "charisma" keys. He explained that the significant Democratic defeat in the 2022 midterms had cost them the “party mandate.” Despite these challenges, Lichtman believes that for Harris to be defeated, Democrats would need to lose three additional key seats, which he considers unlikely.

Lichtman plans to make his official prediction for the 2024 presidential race after the Democratic convention.