US Air Force General warns war with China possible 'as early as 2025': 'My gut tells me'

The United States Air Force general, Gen. Michael A. Minihan, has made shocking and explosive claims that the US Army could be at war with the Chinese PLA two years from now. In an internal memo dispatched to US troops under his command, Minihan predicted the timeline of a potential conflict between China and the United States, underscoring the shortest period ever predicted by any American defense official yet.

Both US and China will have a presidential election in 2024, and the Chinese authoritarian leader Xi Jinping could use a distraction to advance on the Taiwanese territory, Minihan warned in the memo, adding that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), officially the Communist Party of China has set up a “war council” in October 2022 as Jinping secured his third consecutive term. 

“My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025"— content of the memo sent to the US troops by Air Force general, Gen. Michael A. Minihan read.

'My gut tells me we will fight in 2025..'

The head of the US Air Mobility Command which is responsible for the service’s fleet of transport and refueling aircraft, in the memorandum predicted that US and China may go to war possibly over self-administered Taiwan. The document, now available on social media, was confirmed by the Pentagon as authentic and factual. “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025," the memo sent to the American troops by the US four-star General, read. It further stated that the goal of the US should be to “deter and if required, defeat China."

US Navy F35C Lightning II combat jet conducting exercises in the South China Sea. Credit: AP

Minihan asked the Mobile Command personnel to demonstrate war readiness and asked the airmen qualified to use advanced weaponry to “fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most” sometimes. The memo, dated Feb. 1, was first accessed by American broadcaster NBC. 

“Aim for the head,”  Air Force general, Gen. Michael A. Minihan educated the US troops, escalating the prospects of a war with China. “Run deliberately, not recklessly,” he instructed. “If you are comfortable in your approach to training, then you are not taking enough risk.”

Air Force spokeswoman, Maj. Hope Cronin, has verified the authenticity of the internally circulated memo, saying in a statement that Minihan’s order “builds on last year’s foundational efforts by Air Mobility Command to ready the Air Mobility Forces for future conflict, should deterrence fail.” The US Air Force General is telling his command to prepare for war in general, she noted. Minihan asked thousands of American troops to be more aggressive about military training, and “consider their personal affairs" as he outlined Xi Jinping’s aspirations. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks after reviewing the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy fleet in the South China Sea. Credit: AP

Pentagon spokesman, Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, at a White House presser, acknowledged the memo, saying that the 2022 National Defense Strategy clarified that  China "is the pacing challenge of the Department of Defense” and that U.S. officials are working with allies and partners to “preserve a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific.” The Congressionally-mandated review called for the deterrence of the People's Republic of China, posing it as the most consequential and systemic challenge on the globe. The US National Defense Strategy (NDS) derided the "coercive and malign activities" of China that arise transboundary challenges and impose new demands on the US Joint Force and the defense enterprise for combat readiness. 

"PRC's increasingly provocative rhetoric and coercive activity towards Taiwan are destabilizing, risk miscalculation, and threaten the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait," the NDS said.

"This is part of a broader pattern of destabilizing and coercive PRC behavior that stretches across the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and along the Line of Actual Control."