US Elections: Here Is What You Need To Watch Out For On Election Night

Election night in the United States can feel like a slow-motion jigsaw puzzle — where each piece arrives one at a time, without a full view of the final image. As thousands of counties report vote totals, these early results may hint at the outcome, but interpreting them can be tricky.

To help navigate election night’s twists and turns, here’s a breakdown of the unique vote-counting processes in key states and how these affect the early results. From “blue mirages” to sudden leads, understanding these patterns may reveal how the race could unfold, well before the last ballot is counted.

Florida: The First Clues of the Night

Florida is often the first major state to report results, with initial numbers coming in by 7 p.m. EST, even though some polls in the state close at 8 p.m. Unlike many states, Florida’s counties are required to release absentee and early votes first, which tend to lean Democratic, as recent elections have shown. This means initial results in Florida may appear stronger for Democratic candidates, only for Republicans to catch up later in the night.

Take the 2022 Senate race as an example. Democrat Val Demings took an early lead over Republican Senator Marco Rubio in the heavily Democratic Broward County. However, her lead began to dwindle as Election Day votes from more conservative areas came in, leading to Rubio’s 58%-41% victory.

Virginia: A Waiting Game in Northern Suburbs

In Virginia, there are no strict rules on the order in which counties report, and this lack of standardization can cause temporary swings. While rural counties often report faster and lean Republican, the major cities and suburbs in Northern Virginia, which lean Democratic, tend to report later. This can create a “red mirage” in the initial results until the urban areas weigh in.

This was evident in the 2020 election, when Donald Trump held a lead over Joe Biden in Virginia for hours. Around midnight, Fairfax County, a Democratic stronghold, reported a 400,000-vote batch that swung the state in Biden’s favor, ultimately leading to his 10-point victory.

Georgia: A Blue Mirage in the Peach State

In Georgia, absentee ballots can be processed on Election Day, meaning counties may release them shortly after the polls close. These initial reports often favor Democrats, resulting in what’s known as a “blue mirage.” However, it can take hours for Election Day votes to trickle in from smaller counties, many of which lean Republican.

In the 2022 Senate race, Democrat Raphael Warnock held an early lead over his opponent, but with votes still outstanding from Republican-leaning areas, the race tightened. This year, a new rule requiring poll workers to hand-count ballots could also delay results.

Ohio: Mail-In Votes Swing Blue, But Watch for Late Republican Gains

In Ohio, the first results typically include pre-Election Day votes, which often favor Democrats. This pattern was evident in the 2022 Senate race, when Democrat Tim Ryan gained an early lead thanks to a strong showing in Franklin County. However, as Election Day ballots rolled in, Republican JD Vance steadily closed the gap, winning the race by six points.

Ohio’s early leads for Democrats may look promising, but the tide can shift quickly as Election Day votes are counted.

North Carolina: Fast Count, But Temporary Leads

North Carolina’s counting process often produces initial leads for Democrats as mail ballots are reported first. In 2022, Democrat Cheri Beasley held a significant early advantage in the Senate race, only to see her lead erased as Election Day votes came in, giving Republican Ted Budd the victory.

This year, however, could introduce a new layer of complexity. Following Hurricane Helene, voters in 25 affected counties can submit absentee ballots at early voting locations across the state until polls close. This might shift the usual vote count patterns in North Carolina.

Pennsylvania: Blue and Red Mirages on Election Night

Pennsylvania’s counting process makes it one of the most unpredictable states on election night. Some counties report mail ballots first, favoring Democrats, while others report Election Day votes early, favoring Republicans. This led to big swings in the 2020 election: Biden took a lead in early mail-in returns, Trump surged ahead with Election Day votes, and then Biden regained a narrow advantage as mail-in ballots continued to be counted.

During the 2022 Senate race, Democrat John Fetterman’s initial lead held, largely due to the heavily Democratic Philadelphia region. But the pattern of swings and mirages can make Pennsylvania a nail-biter right up until the final call.

Wisconsin: Mirages and Milwaukee’s Last Call

In Wisconsin, vote-counting varies by municipality, with some cities, including Milwaukee, separating their mail-in and Election Day ballots. Milwaukee’s process of counting Election Day ballots first and mail-in ballots later can lead to sudden shifts.

In close races, the outcome may not be clear until early morning when Milwaukee’s final batch is reported. This can make Wisconsin one of the last states to be called and a prime example of both red and blue mirages.

Michigan: Waiting on Wayne and Oakland

Michigan’s diverse counties also make it a state to watch closely on election night. Absentee ballots, which favor Democrats, cannot be processed until Election Day morning, often prolonging the count. Urban areas like Wayne (home to Detroit) and Oakland County can bring in substantial numbers of votes for Democrats, but often report later in the evening.

In 2020, as more votes from Detroit and surrounding areas were added, Biden’s margin grew, securing his win in the state. Michigan’s scattered reporting patterns mean that urban vote updates late in the night can decisively sway the state’s result.

Arizona: Expect a Strong Start, But Watch the “Late Earlies”

Arizona’s vote counting kicks off an hour after polls close, with a large initial update due to early processing of mail ballots. Like other states, this first report often leans Democratic, creating an early lead that can diminish as Election Day votes are added. Arizona’s unique “late earlies” — ballots dropped off on Election Day but counted afterward — have leaned Republican in recent years, meaning the final tallies may surprise.

In the 2022 Senate race, Democrat Mark Kelly held his lead throughout the count, but races in Arizona can come down to the last votes counted from these “late earlies.”

Navigating Election Night Like a Pro

Election night trends in these key states may hint at the final result, but mirages — early, skewed results that don’t hold up — are common. Mail-in ballots, early voting, and Election Day patterns vary widely, making close observation essential. Watch for early leads to narrow as new batches of votes are reported, especially in states with more flexible rules on vote counting.

By understanding each state’s vote-counting idiosyncrasies, observers can gain a clearer picture of how results will likely shift, and why those shifts happen. When the polls close, the suspense builds — but knowing what to expect from these battleground states might just make election night a little easier to piece together.

(With inputs from AP).