Congress collapse, 'Kejriwal vs who?', Delhi tug-of-war and 2 more reasons for AAP's sweep

As per latest EC trends, AAP is set to form government in Delhi once again with a thumping majority of 62 seats in 70-member house. While vote share of party has marginally dipped from 54.3% to 53.65%, Arvind Kejriwal-led government has successfully mand to duck 5 years of anti-incumbency. In previous Assembly polls, AAP had won 67 seats. On or hand, BJP will have to settle for only 8 seats. Meanwhile, Congress party failed to open its account for second consecutive Assembly election.  

Read: Delhi Elections: Congress Blames 'communal Politics' Of Modi, Shah For Election Results

Here are reasons for Kejriwal's victory: 

collapse of Congress 

Congress was dominant party in Delhi Assembly, ruling for three consecutive terms under leadership of late Sheila Dikshit from 1998 to 2013. party suffered a blow in 2013 Assembly election as its vote share declined from 40.3% to 24.6%. While BJP vote share witnessed only a negative swing of 3.4%, AAP got a significant 29.5% vote share in its first-ever election. This indicates that AAP gained massively at expense of Congress.  

Subsequently, 2015 Assembly polls also strengned this very phemen as Congress vote share reduced from 24.6% to 9.7% while AAP jumped from 29.5% to 54.3%. In terms of seats, Sonia Gandhi-led party collapsed from pre-2013 figure of 43 seats to 0 in 2015 and 2020 elections. Thus, AAP has effectively replaced Congress in bipolar contest with BJP in national capital as far as Assembly polls are concerned. 

Read: Nitish Kumar's Vague Response On Delhi CM Kejriwal's 3rd Term Victory: 'Janta Maalik Hai'

Deliverables trump emotive issues

Right at outset, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal made it clear that his party would focus on issues such as clean water, education, and health. For instance, AAP claims to have added 20,000 classrooms to existing schools and improved quality of education. Atishi, its winning candidate from  Kalkaji constituency has been credited for her valuable contribution in this regard.  

Apart from Mohalla clinic initiative for affordable and accessible healthcare, Kejriwal government anunced free electricity for households with power consumption up to 200 units. Additionally, electricity rate for power consumption up to 400 units was halved. Moreover, he anunced a free water supply of up to 20,000 litres per month.  

se measures affecting daily lives of people seem to have trumped BJP’s calculations. While development and Central government schemes were a part of BJP’s election campaign, it was perceived that emotive issue of Shaheen Bagh protests featured more prominently especially towards fag end of campaign. While this did impact public opinion, it proved to be minimal as it was t a national election.  

For much of campaign, AAP and BJP appeared to be slugging it out over who would take credit as well as blame for various issues important for people of Delhi, wher it be environmental issues pertaining to water and air, or implementation of welfare schemes, such as Mohalla Clinic versus Ayushmann Bharat polemics, or BJP's consternation at AAP's 'freebie politics'. nature of Delhi being a national capital as well as a state had also locked it in a jurisdictional lockjam for almost entirety of last five years, which exacerbated tug-of-war.

Read: Remarkably Good Sign In Indian Politics: Kejriwal's Delhi Hat-trick Wins Deve Gowda Praise

CM face of BJP 

Having a formidable CM candidate proved to be one of biggest advants for AAP. From beginning, ruling AAP taunted BJP and Congress on t anuncing ir CM candidates. Kejriwal went to extent of suggesting that a vote for BJP would go waste in absence of a CM face. Though BJP was probably apprehensive of minating one individual due to failed Kiran Bedi experiment and infighting in its state unit, this negatively shaped preference of voter.  

distinction between Lok Sabha and state election 

In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, BJP retained all 7 seats that it won last time. AAP had a massive slump in its vote share by 14.9% and was relegated to third spot in election. On contrary, 56.58% of people voted for BJP. If we compare this to current Assembly election results, AAP increased its vote share from Lok Sabha election by 35.65%.

But BJP saw a reverse trend with its vote share collapsing to 38.43%. This implies that voter is increasingly making a distinction between a state and Lok Sabha election. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan are recent examples where electorate has given a thumping mandate to different parties in state and Lok Sabha election. 

Avoiding controversies 

Unlike his previous avatar where he perpetually got into a tiff with BJP on every issue, Kejriwal considerably moderated his stance over last few years. For instance, he neir visited injured students of Jamia Millia Islamia University and JNU r did he take a position on  Shaheen Bagh protests. Furrmore, he sought to take a centrist stance on nationalism and religion which is evident from his chanting ‘Bharat Mata Ki Jai’ slogan and openly reciting Hanuman Chalisa. Also, he refused to retaliate against most accusations levelled by BJP.  

Read: Gautam Gambhir Eats Humble Pie; Congratulates Kejriwal & Adds 'don't Make Delhi Helpless'