Republic Double Exit Poll for Rajasthan: BJP projected to bounce right back from assembly polls setback, Congress likely to lose heavily in 2019 Lok Sabha elections say CVoter and Jan Ki Baat

As polling in all-important 2019 Lok Sabha polls - largest exercise in democratic franchise anywhere in world - has officially come to an end, countdown for deciding-day - May 23  has begun, when results of 2019 Lok Sabha Elections will finally be declared. While India is on threshold of welcoming a new government,  Republic Media Network has broadcast India's biggest exit poll - mega double exit poll in collaboration with country's top pollsters Jan Ki Baat and CVoter. 

An estimated 900 million citizens voted in thousands of polling booths in every corner of country in 39 days-long voting process. Vote-counting will be held for 542 seats in Lower House of India's Parliament (Vellore in Tamil Nadu stands countermanded) and country awaits with crucial numbers regarding composition of 17th Lok Sabha.

While exact numbers will be declared on May 23, Republic Media Network presents mega double exit poll a projection of how seat-shares and vote-shares could turn out for each of states and union territories of India, and put toger, project wher BJP and NDA will be able to repeat ir historic mandate of 2014 and conversely, wher Congress, UPA will be able to make a fightback from reaching a historic low. projections are made after conducting extensive on-ground surveys all across country following each of seven phases of 2019 polls.

Projection for Rajasthan (Total 25 seats):

Both CVoter and Jan Ki Baat exit polls predict that BJP will emerge victorious in state. While Jan Ki Baat projects that BJP will win between 19 and 23 seats in state, CVoter projects 22 as number that will go in NDA's favour in state. 

CVoter:

Seat-share projection: 

NDA: 22 seats

UPA: 3 seat

CVoter vote-share projection:

NDA: 56.6 per cent

UPA: 33.7 per cent

Jan Ki Baat: 

Seat-share projection:

BJP: 19-23 seats
 
INC: 3-6 seats

C Voter has predicted that NDA will win 22 seats in state which can be called a moral setback for party as it swept state in last Lok Sabha elections, while it has also predicted that UPA 3 seats in state. Jan Ki Baat has predicted that NDA will get 19 to 23 seats in state while Congress will get 3 to 6 seats in state.  If predicted numbers prove to be true on May 23, it can be termed as a clarion call by people against four months of Ashok Gehlot government in state.

Political scenario in state: 

A BJP bastion where party won all 25 seats in 2014 but lost to Congress party in this year's assembly polls. While Congress will doubt be looking to carry forward its momentum, BJP says that people will give an answer to false promises of Congress party during assembly election campaign. In 2014, BJP registered victory over all 25 seats in state. Rajasthan has been a BJP stronghold as it has been winning state since 1999 Lok Sabha polls except in 2009 when Congress party won 20 seats, BJP won 4 seats and remaining 1 seat was won by an Independent. In 2018 assembly polls, owing to anti-incumbency against Vasundhara Raje government, BJP faced defeat but gave a tough fight to Congress who is ruling state assembly under Ashok Gehlot. 

se are key contest in state:

1. Jodhpur: Senior Congress leader and Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot's son Vaibhav Gehlot has been fielded against BJP's Gajendra Singh Shekhawat in Jodhpur Lok Sabha constituency. This is a prestige battle if ever re was one and also, somewhat of a verdict on senior Gehlot's four months at helm of state. 
    
2. Jaipur Rural: An interesting electoral contest is on cards in Rajasthan’s Jaipur Rural constituency where two Olympians — BJP’s Col Rajyavardhan Rathore and Congress’ Krishna Poonia — will face each or in Lok Sabha polls. Col Rathore is sitting MP.
    
3. Barmer: In Barmer Lok Sabha constituency, Congress' Manavendra Singh who is son of former BJP stalwart, Jaswant Singh is pitted against BJP's Kailash Chaudhary. While Manavendra has face value amidst people of constituency, BJP has fielded Chaudhary to woo Jat population in ir favour in constituency.  Balakot airstrikes factor impacts voting in region. Barmer shares a border with Pakistan in West and Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman’s banners have been seen in Kailash Chaudhary’s rallies.
    
4. Jalore: South of Barmer, Jalore seat has elected an outsider as ir Parliamentarian, a record 11 times — highest in state. However, Devji Mansinghram Patel, a local, has been elected to Parliament from Jalore twice, in 2009 and 2014, and is in fray for a third term. He is up against Congress candidate Ratan Devasi. Congress has fielded Ratan Devasi, former MLA from Raniwara (2008), who has twice lost to BJP’s Narayan Singh Dewal in 2013 and 2018 Assembly polls. vote margin was over 32,000 in 2013. It got reduced to about 3,400 votes in 2018, nearly 10 per cent of previous gap.
    
5. Udaipur: Despite anti-incumbency against Raje government, sourn region of state voted in BJP’s favour. In Lok Sabha elections, cousins Arjunlal Meena, BJP’s sitting MP, and Raghuveer Meena, Congress candidate, are up against each or for a second time. BJP retains upper hand in region but Congress’ appeal to Meenas. In 2014, Arjunlal had defeated Raghuveer by 236,762 (19.84%) votes. However, Udaipur seat has t elected a parliamentarian from same party it voted for in previous Lok Sabha elections since 1996. seat has been alternating between Congress and BJP candidates for 23 years. It remains to be seen if constituency breaks its own pattern.

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How state voted: 

Phase 4 voter turut comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 64.48 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 68.17 percent

Phase 5 voter turut comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 61.61 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 63.72 percent

Lok Sabha election stretched for more than one month saw heated campaigning from all parties. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking a second term in office, addressed a total of 144 rallies and roadshows this election season, Congress president Rahul Gandhi addressed 125 rallies in 2019 polls with elections also marking entry of his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as an official member of Congress.

In Lok Sabha elections 2019, re were controversies galore over course of polls, ranging from poll violence being witnessed in each of 7 phases of voting in Bengal, to some shocking statements from leaders across parties, with likes of Azam Khan, Yogi Adityanath, Maneka Gandhi and ors being struck down on by Election Commission, and ors, like Sam Pitroda, Sadhvi Pragya and Kamal Haasan triggering mass outr. 

A number of Republic Media Network newsbreaks especially set nda for polls, including first interview of Prime Minister's election campaign to Republic's Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami and his final campaign interview to Executive Editor Abhishek Kapoor. Alongside se were sensational #MPsOnSale sting on sitting MPs who showed mselves willing to compromise interests of those whom y claim to represent, Operation Karz Maafi sting that exposed falsehood in Congress' farm loan-waiver promise, and numerous ors.

vote counting for 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held on May 23. Join Arnab on Republic Media Network for n-stop cover of sensational conclusion to general elections here.

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